Dataset Information

Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning.

ABSTRACT: Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions-abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal for critical transitions by learning generic features of bifurcations from large simulated training data sets. So far, classifiers have only been trained to predict continuous-time bifurcations, ignoring rich dynamics unique to discrete-time bifurcations. Here, we train a deep learning classifier to provide an early warning signal for the five local discrete-time bifurcations of codimension-one. We test the classifier on simulation data from discrete-time models used in physiology, economics and ecology, as well as experimental data of spontaneously beating chick-heart aggregates that undergo a period-doubling bifurcation. The classifier shows higher sensitivity and specificity than commonly used early warning signals under a wide range of noise intensities and rates of approach to the bifurcation. It also predicts the correct bifurcation in most cases, with particularly high accuracy for the period-doubling, Neimark-Sacker and fold bifurcations. Deep learning as a tool for bifurcation prediction is still in its nascence and has the potential to transform the way we monitor systems for critical transitions.

SUBMITTER: Bury TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10564974 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning.

Bury Thomas M TM Dylewsky Daniel D Bauch Chris T CT Anand Madhur M Glass Leon L Shrier Alvin A Bub Gil G

Nature communications 20231010 1

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions-abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal for critical transitions by learning generic features of bifurcations from large simulated training data sets. So far, classifiers have only been trained to predict continuous-time bifurcations, ignoring rich dynamics unique to discrete-time bifurcations. Here, we train a deep learning classifier to provide an ea ...[more]

PMID: 37816722

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Project description:Fusarium head blight (FHB) incited by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe is a devastating disease of barley and other cereal crops worldwide. Fusarium head blight is associated with trichothecene mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON), where contaminated grains are unfit for malting or animal feed industries. While genetically resistant cultivars offer the best economic and environmentally responsible means to mitigate disease, parent lines with adequate resistance are limited in barley. Resistancebreeding based upon quantitative genetic gains has been slow to date, due to intensive labour requirements of disease nurseries. The development of high throughput genome-wide molecular markers, allow application in genomic prediction models. A diverse genomic panel consisting of 400 two-row spring barley lines was assembled to focus on Canadian barley breeding programs. The panel was evaluated for FHB and DON content in three environments and over two years. Moreover, it was genotyped using an Illumina Infinium HTS iSelect custom beadchip array of single nucleotide polymorphic molecular markers (50K SNP), where over 23K molecular markers were polymorphic. Genomic prediction has been successfully demonstrated for reducing FHB and DON content in cereals using various statistically-based models of different underlying assumptions. Herein, we have studied an alternative method basedon machine learning and compare it with a statistical approach. Two encoding techniques were utilized (categorical or Hardy-Weinberg frequencies), followed by selecting essential genomic markers for phenotype prediction. Subsequently, we applied a transformer-based deep learning algorithm to predict FHB and DON. Apart from the transformer method, we also implemented a Residual Fully Connected Neural Network (RFCNN). Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to compare true vs. predicted outputs. Under most model scenarios, the use of all markers vs. selected markers marginally improved prediction performance except for RFCNN method for FHB (27.6%). Hardy-Weinberg encoding generally improved correlation for FHB (6.9%) and DON (9.6%) for transformer. This study suggests the potential of the transformer based method for genomic prediction of complex traits such as FHB or DON, having performed better or equally compared with existing machine learning and statistical method. To genomic prediction in barley for Fusarium head blight and deoxynivalenol content using a custom Illumina Infinium array (BarleySNP50-JHI) (www.illumina.com). Sample types included leaves from 400 barley genotypes mostly of Canadian origin. This series includes 400 genotypes assayed on an Illumina infinium HTS platform 50K BeadChip.

Dataset Information

Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning.

Publications

Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning.

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