Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Nino and La Nina events.

ABSTRACT: Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typically sample a variety of initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year predictability conditional on the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the time of prediction initialisation. We find that predictions starting with El Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit higher skill in predicting near-surface air temperature and precipitation multiple years in advance, compared to predictions initialised from neutral ENSO conditions. This holds true in idealised prediction experiments with the Community C

SUBMITTER: Liu Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10567839 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature