Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections.

Methods

A compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled.

Results

When VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1

SUBMITTER: Hamilton A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10576074 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature