Probabilistic projections of granular energy technology diffusion at subnational level.

ABSTRACT: Projections of granular energy technology diffusion can support decision-making on climate mitigation policies and infrastructure investments. However, such projections often do not account for uncertainties and have low spatial resolution. S-curve models of technology diffusion are widely used to project future installations, but the results of the different models can vary significantly. We propose a method to create probabilistic projections of granular energy technology diffusion at subnational level based on historical time series data and testing how various projection models perform in terms of accuracy and uncertainty to inform the choice of models. As a case study, we investigate the growth of solar photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles at municipality level thr

SUBMITTER: Zielonka N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10578461 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature