Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

ABSTRACT: Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves

SUBMITTER: Bhatia S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10584190 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature