Comparing methods to predict baseline mortality for excess mortality calculations.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO)'s excess mortality estimates presented in May 2022 stirred controversy, due in part to the high estimate provided for Germany, which was later attributed to the spline model used. This paper aims to reproduce the problem using synthetic datasets, thus allowing the investigation of its sensitivity to parameters, both of the mortality curve and of the used method, thereby shedding light on the conditions that gave rise to this error and identifying possible remedies.

Methods

A negative binomial model was used accounting for long-term change, seasonality, flu seasons, and heat waves. Simulated mortality curves from this model were then analysed using simple methods (mean, linear trend), the WHO method, and the method of Acosta and

SUBMITTER: Ferenci T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10585880 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature