Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in South Korea during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. The social distancing measures, as effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), adopted to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 might have influenced influenza activity. We evaluated IFV(influenza virus) activity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of NPI intensity on influenza transmission.

Methods

IFV activity and epidemic duration during COVID-19 pandemic were predicted under a counterfactual scenario with no NPIs against COVID-19. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was used to quantify the effects of NPIs on the transmission of influenza virus. Influenza-like illness/1000 outpatients and IFV positivity rate

SUBMITTER: Kim HK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10594831 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature