Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data

SUBMITTER: Servadio JL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10599710 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature