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Prediction of major bleeding events in 1381 patients with essential thrombocythemia.

ABSTRACT: The goal of therapy in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is reducing thrombotic risk. No algorithm to predict hemorrhage risk exists. The impact ofanti-platelet, cytoreductive and anticoagulation therapies on risk of major bleeding (MB) was evaluated. MB events were retrospectively analyzed in 1381 ET from 10 European centers. There were 0.286 MB events/person-year. Neither the International Thrombosis Prognostic Score for thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (IPSET-t) nor the revised IPSET-t (r-IPSET-t) was predictive for hemorrhage-free survival at 10 years (p = 0.092 vs p = 0.1). Ageand leukocyte count were MB risk factors, while low hemoglobin was protective. For ET with extreme thrombocytosis (ExtT) and leukocytosis cytoreduction was not protective. MB were more frequent in ET with ExtT who received anticoagulation. Antiplatelet therapy was not, while anticoagulation was a risk factor for MB (HR 3.05, p = 0.016, CI 1.23-7.56), in particular vitamin K antagonists (22.6% of those treated had a MB event, HR 2.96, p = 0.004, CI 1.41-6.22). Survival at 10 years was associated with hemorrhage (OR 2.54, p < 0.001) but not thrombosis (HR 0.95, p = 0.829). Hemorrhage has a higher risk of mortality than thrombosis. Improved risk stratification for MB is necessary. The choice of anticoagulation, cytoreduction and antiplatelet therapies is an important area of research in ET.

SUBMITTER: Stuckey R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10615906 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of major bleeding events in 1381 patients with essential thrombocythemia.

Stuckey Ruth R Ianotto Jean-Christophe JC Santoro Marco M Czyż Anna A Encinas Manuel M Perez MMP Gómez-Casares María Teresa MT Pereira Maria Soledad Noya MSN de Nałęcz Anna Kulikowska AK Gołos Aleksandra A Lewandowski Krzysztof K Szukalski Łukasz Ł González-Martín Jesús M JM Sobas Marta Anna MA

International journal of hematology 20230903 5

The goal of therapy in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is reducing thrombotic risk. No algorithm to predict hemorrhage risk exists. The impact ofanti-platelet, cytoreductive and anticoagulation therapies on risk of major bleeding (MB) was evaluated. MB events were retrospectively analyzed in 1381 ET from 10 European centers. There were 0.286 MB events/person-year. Neither the International Thrombosis Prognostic Score for thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (IPSET-t) nor the revised IPSET-t (r ...[more]

PMID: 37660316

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Project description:BackgroundEssential thrombocythemia (ET), a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), has a substantial risk of evolving into post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (post-ET MF). This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for early prediction of post-ET MF in ET patients.MethodsThe training cohort comprised 558 patients from 8 haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023, while the external validation cohort consisted of 165 patients from 6 additional haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identified independent risk factors and establish a nomogram to predict the post-ET MF free survival. Both bias-corrected area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.FindingsMultivariate Cox regression demonstrated that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW), elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the level of haemoglobin (Hb), a history of smoking and the presence of splenomegaly were independent risk factors for post-ET MF. The C-index displayed of the training and validation cohorts were 0.877 and 0.853. The 5 years, 10 years AUC values in training and external validation cohorts were 0.948, 0.769 and 0.978, 0.804 respectively. Bias-corrected curve is close to the ideal curve and revealed a strong consistency between actual observation and prediction.InterpretationWe developed a nomogram capable of predicting the post-ET MF free survival probability at 5 years and 10 years in ET patients. This tool helps doctors identify patients who need close monitoring and appropriate counselling.FundingThis research was funded by the Key R&D Program of Zhejiang (No. 2022C03137); the Public Technology Application Research Program of Zhejiang, China (No. LGF21H080003); and the Zhejiang Medical Association Clinical Medical Research special fund project (No. 2022ZYC-D09).

Project description:We describe 1000 patients with essential thrombocythemia seen at the Center Research and Innovation of Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (CRIMM), Florence, Italy, between 1980 and 2023: median age 59 years (18-95), females 65%, JAK2/CALR/MPL-mutated 66%/19%/4%, triple-negative (TN) 11%. Extreme thrombocytosis (ExT, platelets ≥1000 × 109/L) in 16%, leukocytosis (leukocytes >11 × 109/L) in 16%, and at least one cardiovascular risk factor in 52% of cases. JAK2-mutated patients were older (median 62 years) and CALR-mutated and TN (53 years for both) younger (p < 0.001). Female gender clustered with TN (76%) and JAK2 (67%) vs CALR (46%) mutations (p < 0.001). ExT clustered with CALR (type-2 more than type-1), TN and MPL, and leukocytosis with JAK2 mutation (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, risk factors for arterial thrombosis-free survival were age ≥60 years (HR 2.0; p < 0.001) and JAK2 mutation (HR 1.3; p = 0.02) with borderline significance for male gender (p = 0.08) and cardiovascular risk factors (p = 0.08); for venous thrombosis-free survival, JAK2 mutation (HR 1.9; p = 0.03) with borderline significance for venous thrombosis history (p = 0.07); for overall survival, older age (p < 0.001), male gender (HR 1.9; p < 0.001), absolute neutrophil count (ANC) ≥ 8 × 109/L (HR 1.8; p = 0.01), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) < 1.7 × 109/L (HR 1.2; p = 0.03); for myelofibrosis-free survival, CALR mutation (HR 2.7; p < 0.001, particularly for CALR type 1/1-like, HR 3.3) and MPL mutation (HR 3.9; p = 0.001); for leukemia-free survival, older age (p = 0.03). Cytoreductive therapy appeared to mitigate both venous (HR 0.3; p = 0.01) and arterial thrombosis (HR 4; p = 0.04); there was a trend for aspirin in preventing arterial thrombosis recurrence. The current study provides real-world observations in essential thrombocythemia, representing a valid source document for interpreting current literature and planning future studies.

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Prediction of major bleeding events in 1381 patients with essential thrombocythemia.

Publications

Prediction of major bleeding events in 1381 patients with essential thrombocythemia.

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