The structural-demographic theory revisited: An empirical test for industrialized societies.

ABSTRACT: The structural demographic theory for industrialized societies generates three testable predictions. The first prediction is that labor oversupply leads to declining (relative) wages. The second prediction is that labor oversupply leads to elite overproduction: as relative wages fall, elite incomes display a hump-shaped pattern while elite numbers increase. The third prediction is that elite overproduction leads to political instability. I test these predictions on US data by combining evidence from existing studies with empirical proxies for elite numbers and elite income. The predictions are not supported by the data. First, labor oversupply cannot explain the polarization of wages and the decline in relative wages. The largest share in wage variance is explained by automation. Second, t

SUBMITTER: Georgescu OM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10621949 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature