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Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030.

ABSTRACT: The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.

SUBMITTER: Woody M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10625617 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030.

Woody Maxwell M Keoleian Gregory A GA Vaishnav Parth P

Nature communications 20231104 1

The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emission ...[more]

PMID: 37925546

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