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Tropical mountain ice core δ18O: A Goldilocks indicator for global temperature change.


ABSTRACT: Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ18Oice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ18Oice is an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of -7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a "Goldilocks-type" indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as -5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as -5.85° ± 0.51°C.

SUBMITTER: Liu Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10631737 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tropical mountain ice core δ<sup>18</sup>O: A Goldilocks indicator for global temperature change.

Liu Zhengyu Z   Bao Yuntao Y   Thompson Lonnie G LG   Mosley-Thompson Ellen E   Tabor Clay C   Zhang Guang J GJ   Yan Mi M   Lofverstrom Marcus M   Montanez Isabel I   Oster Jessica J  

Science advances 20231108 45


Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>ice</sub>), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>ice</sub> is an indicator  ...[more]

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