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Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range.

ABSTRACT: How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis , across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found remarkably limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations, with the upper thermal limits of fitness varying by <1°C across the species range. For one life history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found environmental temperatures already regularly exceed our highest estimated upper thermal limits throughout most of the species range, suggesting limited potential for mosquito thermal tolerance to evolve on pace with warming. Strategies for avoiding high temperatures such as diapause, phenological shifts, and behavioral thermoregulation are likely important for mosquito persistence.

SUBMITTER: Couper LI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10634975 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range.

Couper Lisa I LI Farner Johannah E JE Lyberger Kelsey P KP Lee Alexandra S AS Mordecai Erin A EA

bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology 20231102

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, <i>Aedes sierrensis</i>, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected popula ...[more]

PMID: 37961581

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Project description:BackgroundThe impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission.MethodsTo test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003-2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain.ResultsWithin-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011-2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus.ConclusionsOur results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates.

Dataset Information

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range.

Publications

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range.

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