Unrecorded alcohol consumption in Lithuania: a modelling study for 2000-2021.
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SUBMITTER: Stelemekas M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10642605 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Unrecorded alcohol consumption in Lithuania: a modelling study for 2000-2021.
Štelemėkas Mindaugas M Goštautaitė Midttun Nijolė N Lange Shannon S Liutkutė-Gumarov Vaida V Manthey Jakob J Miščikienė Laura L Petkevičienė Janina J Radišauskas Ričardas R Rehm Jürgen J Trišauskė Justina J Telksnys Tadas T Thompson Mark James MJ
Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire) 20231101 6
The aim of the study was to estimate unrecorded alcohol consumption in Lithuania for the period 2000-2021 using an indirect method for modelling consumption based on official consumption data and indicators of alcohol-related harm. Methodology employed for estimating the unrecorded alcohol consumption was proposed by Norström and was based on the country's 2019 European Health Interview Survey and indicators of fully alcohol-attributable mortality. The proportion of unrecorded alcohol consumptio ...[more]
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Project description:AimsThe aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied.DesignStatistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared.MethodData were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses.ResultsA total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved.ConclusionIn a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.
| S-EPMC8899268 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance capacity; we aimed to use multiple data sources and statistical models to estimate global antibiotic consumption.MethodsIn this spatial modelling study, we used individual-level data from household surveys to inform a Bayesian geostatistical model of antibiotic usage in children (aged <5 years) with lower respiratory tract infections in LMICs. Antibiotic consumption data were obtained from multiple sources, including IQVIA, WHO, and the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net). The estimates of the antibiotic usage model were used alongside sociodemographic and health covariates to inform a model of total antibiotic consumption in LMICs. This was combined with a single model of antibiotic consumption in high-income countries to produce estimates of antibiotic consumption covering 204 countries and 19 years.FindingsWe analysed 209 surveys done between 2000 and 2018, covering 284 045 children with lower respiratory tract infections. We identified large national and subnational variations of antibiotic usage in LMICs, with the lowest levels estimated in sub-Saharan Africa and the highest in eastern Europe and central Asia. We estimated a global antibiotic consumption rate of 14·3 (95% uncertainty interval 13·2-15·6) defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 population per day in 2018 (40·2 [37·2-43·7] billion DDD), an increase of 46% from 9·8 (9·2-10·5) DDD per 1000 per day in 2000. We identified large spatial disparities, with antibiotic consumption rates varying from 5·0 (4·8-5·3) DDD per 1000 per day in the Philippines to 45·9 DDD per 1000 per day in Greece in 2018. Additionally, we present trends in consumption of different classes of antibiotics for selected Global Burden of Disease study regions using the IQVIA, WHO, and ESAC-net input data. We identified large increases in the consumption of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in North Africa and Middle East, and south Asia.InterpretationTo our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates antibiotic usage and consumption data and uses geostatistical modelling techniques to estimate antibiotic consumption for 204 countries from 2000 to 2018. Our analysis identifies both high rates of antibiotic consumption and a lack of access to antibiotics, providing a benchmark for future interventions.FundingFleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8654683 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy.MethodsThe standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations.ResultsAge-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product.ConclusionsMale mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.
| S-EPMC10935848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesAs unrecorded alcohol use contributes to a substantial burden of disease, this study characterises this phenomenon in newly independent states (NIS) of the former Soviet Union with regard to the sources of unrecorded alcohol, and the proportion of unrecorded of total alcohol consumption. We also investigate associated sociodemographic characteristics and drinking patterns.DesignCross-sectional data on overall and unrecorded alcohol use in the past 7 days from WHO STEPwise Approach to NCD Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPS) surveys. Descriptive statistics were calculated at the country level, hierarchical logistic and linear regression models were used to investigate sociodemographic characteristics and drinking patterns associated with using unrecorded alcohol.SettingNine NIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) in the years 2013-2017.ParticipantsNationally representative samples including a total of 36 259 participants.ResultsA total of 6251 participants (19.7%; 95% CI 7.9% to 31.5%) reported alcohol consumption in the past 7 days, 2185 of which (35.1%; 95% CI 8.2% to 62.0%) reported unrecorded alcohol consumption with pronounced differences between countries. The population-weighted average proportion of unrecorded consumption in nine NIS was 8.7% (95% CI 5.9% to 12.4%). The most common type of unrecorded alcohol was home-made spirits, followed by home-made beer and wine. Older (45-69 vs 25-44 years) and unemployed (vs employed) participants had higher odds of using unrecorded alcohol. More nuanced sociodemographic differences were observed for specific types of unrecorded alcohol.ConclusionsThis contribution is the first to highlight both, prevalence and composition of unrecorded alcohol consumption in nine NIS. The observed proportions and sources of unrecorded alcohol are discussed in light of local challenges in policy implementation, especially in regard to the newly formed Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as some but not all NIS are in the EAEU.
| S-EPMC8679101 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionComparative risk assessments (CRAs) for alcohol use are based on indirect estimates of attributable harm, and usually combine country-specific exposure estimates and global risk relations derived from meta-analyses. CRAs for Eastern European countries, such as Lithuania, base their risk relations not on global risk relations, but on a large Russian cohort study. The availability of a direct estimate of alcohol-attributable mortality following the 2017 implementation of a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania has allowed a comparison of these indirect estimates with a country-specific gold standard.MethodsA statistical modelling study compared direct (predictions based on a time-series methodology) and indirect (predictions based on an attributable-fraction methodology) estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality before and after a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania. Specifically, Russia-specific versus global relative risks were compared against the gold standard of time-series based predictions.ResultsCompared to direct estimates, indirect estimates markedly underestimated the reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality 12 months post intervention by at least 63%. While both of the indirect estimates differed markedly from the direct estimates, the Russia-specific estimates were closer to the direct estimates, primarily due to higher estimates for alcohol-attributable cardiovascular mortality.DiscussionAs all indirect estimates were markedly lower than direct estimates, current overall relative risks and price elasticities should be re-evaluated. In particular, global estimates should be replaced by new regional estimates based on cohort studies.
| S-EPMC10238643 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Summary Background Smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity are key cancer risk factors contributing to the cancer burden in China. We aimed to quantify the cancer burden in China associated with smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity, and estimate the potential effect for cancer prevention interventions under different scenarios. Methods We used a macro-simulation approach called Prevent Model to estimate for a 30-year study period (2021–2050) numbers and proportions of future avoidable cancer cases under different scenarios of reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity in Chinese adults. Cancer incidence was predicted under three scenarios: elimination, ambitious target (between elimination and manageable target) and manageable target (from national policy or global action plan). Risk factor prevalence was obtained from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, and cancer incidence data were derived from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. Relative risks were obtained from several recent large-scale studies or high-quality meta-analysis. Population data were extracted from the China Population & Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Health Statistical Yearbook and World Population Prospects. Findings Estimates of the avoidable cancer burden varied with different scenarios. In the theoretical maximum intervention scenario, where the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity would be eliminated, 9.17% (males: 13.50%; females: 1.47%) of smoking-related cancer cases, 7.06% (males: 11.49%; females: 1.00%) of cancer cases related to alcohol consumption and 8.22% (males: 7.91%; females: 8.52%) of overweight/obesity-related cancer cases were estimated to be avoidable during 2021–2050. Other scenarios, with more moderate goals in the exposure prevalence of smoking, alcohol use and overweight/obesity were also found to be associated with substantial reductions in the future cancer burden. Interpretation Our results suggested that a substantial number of future cancer cases could be avoided in Chinese adults by reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity. Funding National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China; Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.
| S-EPMC10468350 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background/objectivesThe incidence and mortality of early-onset cancers have been rising in recent decades. While epidemiological studies have examined various types of cancer, updated global data on alcohol-attributable primary liver cancer (PLC) in young adults remains limited.MethodsThis study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study spanning 2000 to 2021 to evaluate the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and corresponding rates of alcohol-attributable PLC among young adults aged 15-49 years.ResultsIn 2021, there were 8290 incidence cases and 6590 deaths from alcohol-attributable PLC in young adults. The age-standardized incidence rate has increased in Europe (annual percent change [APC]: 0.44%, 95%CI 0.35 to 0.54%), Southeast Asia (APC: 0.40%, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.44%), and the Western Pacific region (APC: 0.65%, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.86%). In 2021, alcohol-attributable PLC in young adults represented 11% (+2% from 2000) of incident cases and 11% of (+2% from 2000) deaths among all PLC in young adults. About half of the countries showed an increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-attributable PLC among young adults between 2000 and 2021.ConclusionsThe incidence rate of alcohol-attributable liver cancer in young adults has shifted significantly over the past two decades, with notable increases in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. This trend underscores the need for global strategies to address the rising prevalence of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-associated liver disease and their impact on young adults.
| S-EPMC11853673 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper analyses the degree of persistence in the level of consumption of alcohol in the Group of Seven (G7) countries by using fractional integration. The series under examination are annual sales of pure alcohol in litres per person aged 15 years and older, annually from 1960 to 2021, and we look at the influence that external shocks might have had on the series in these countries. The results indicate that only France displays a significant negative trend and thus a continuous decrease in the level of alcohol consumption. For the rest of the countries, the time trend is insignificant. Dealing with persistence, Japan is the only country that shows clear evidence of reversion to the mean. Policy recommendations are reported at the end of the manuscript.
| S-EPMC11616831 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Over the last decade Russia has introduced various policy measures to reduce alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm at the population level. Several of these policies, such as higher pricing and taxation or restrictions of availability, may not work in the case of unrecorded alcohol consumption; they may encourage consumers to switch to unrecorded alcohol and even increase consumption. In the present qualitative interview study we explore the perception of the recently implemented alcohol policies by patients diagnosed with alcohol dependence in two Russian cities in the years 2013-2014 and shed light on possible entry-points to prevention. METHODS:Semi-structured in-depth expert interviews were conducted with 25 patients of state-run drug and alcohol treatment centers in two Russian cities in 2013 and 2014. The interviews were analyzed using thematic content analysis. RESULTS:All of the interviewed participants have consumed unrecorded at some point with the majority being regular consumers, mostly switching between recorded and unrecorded alcohol depending on the situation, as predominantly defined by available money and available sources of alcohol. Low price and high availability were reported as the main reasons for unrecorded consumption. Participants voiced a general mistrust of the recently implemented alcohol regulations and viewed them largely as ineffective. They expressed particular concerns over price increases and restriction of night sales of alcoholic beverages. Substantial shifts within the unrecorded alcohol market were reported, with a decreasing availability of home-made beverages in favor of alcohol surrogates in the form of non-beverage alcohol, medicinal and cosmetic compounds. At the same time consumption of home-made alcoholic beverages was seen as a strategy to avoid counterfeit alcohol, which was frequently reported for retail sale. CONCLUSIONS:Despite the alcohol policy changes in the last years in Russia, consumption of unrecorded alcohol remained common for people with alcohol dependence. Reduction of availability of unrecorded alcohol, first and foremost in the form of cheap surrogates, is urgently needed to reduce alcohol-related harm. Implementation of screening and brief interventions for excessive alcohol consumption in various contexts such as primary healthcare settings, trauma treatment services or the workplace could be another important measure targeting consumers of unrecorded alcohol.
| S-EPMC6869256 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlcohol consumption is associated with elevated risks of disease and injury, and the best indicator of the level of consumption in a country is total alcohol per capita (APC) consumption among adults which comprises recorded consumption and unrecorded consumption. While recorded consumption can be assessed with small measurement bias via taxation or other governmental records, unrecorded consumption is more difficult to assess. The objectives of this study were to estimate the country-specific proportion and volume of unrecorded APC in 2015, to identify main sources of unrecorded alcohol and to assess to what extent experts perceive unrecorded alcohol as a public health, social, and financial problem.MethodsEstimates of unrecorded APC were based on a multilevel fractional response regression model using data from World Health Organization's (WHO) STEPwise approach to surveillance surveys (16 countries, 66 188 participants), estimates from the routine WHO reporting on key indicators of alcohol use (189 countries), and a nominal group expert assessment (42 countries, 129 experts). Expert assessments also included data on the sources of unrecorded alcohol and the perception of unrecorded alcohol as a public health, social, and financial problem.ResultsThe volume of global unrecorded APC was 1.6 L pure alcohol, representing 25% of the total APC. The volume of unrecorded APC was highest in Europe (2.1 L per capita), while the proportion of unrecorded APC was highest in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (57% of the total alcohol). In countries with available data, homemade alcohol was identified as a major source of unrecorded alcohol. The majority of experts considered unrecorded alcohol to be a public health (62%), social (60%), and financial problem (54%).ConclusionsHigh volumes of unrecorded alcohol are consumed globally; however, the volumes consumed and the sources of the unrecorded alcohol exhibit large geographical variation.
| S-EPMC6513411 | biostudies-literature