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Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia and estimate that the vaccination programme averted 34.8% (95% credible interval: 34.5-35.2%) of 223,000 symptomatic cases, 49.6% (48.7-50.5%) of 5830 hospitalisations and 64.2% (63.1-65.3%) of 1540 hospital deaths that would have occurred in a scenario without vaccination up to May 2022. We estimate the booster campaign contributed 4.5%, 1.9%, and 0.4% to overall reductions in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Our results suggest that removing lockdowns during the first two waves would have had non-linear effects on incidence by altering accumulation of population immunity. Our estimates of vaccination and booster impact differ from those for other countries due to differences in age structure, previous exposure levels and timing of variant introduction relative to vaccination, emphasising the importance of detailed analysis that accounts for these factors.

SUBMITTER: Chapman LAC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10643399 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.

Chapman Lloyd A C LAC Aubry Maite M Maset Noémie N Russell Timothy W TW Knock Edward S ES Lees John A JA Mallet Henri-Pierre HP Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai VM Kucharski Adam J AJ

Nature communications 20231113 1

Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in Fre ...[more]

PMID: 37957160

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Project description:BackgroundBooster vaccine doses against SARS-CoV-2 have been advocated to address evidence of waning immunity, breakthrough infection, and the emergence of immune-evasive variants. A heterologous prime-boost vaccine strategy may offer advantages over a homologous approach, but the safety and efficacy of this approach with the mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 (BNT: Pfizer) and inactivated BBIBP-CorV (BBIBT: Sinopharm) vaccines have not been studied.MethodsWe conducted a non-randomized, non-blinded phase II observational community trial acrossBahrain, investigating the reactogenic and immunogenic responseof participants who had previously received two doses of BBIBP, followed by a third booster dose of either BBIBP (homologous booster) or BNT (heterologous booster). Immunogenicity through serological statuswas determined at baseline and on the following 8thweek. Reactogenicity data (safety and adverse events) were collected throughout study period, in addition to participant-led electronic journaling.Results305 participants (152 BBIBP and 153 BNT booster) were enrolled in the study,with 246 (127 BBIBP and 119 BNT booster) included in the final analysis. There was a significant increase in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels post booster administration in both groups; however, the heterologous BNT arm demonstrated a significantly larger mean increase in the level of spike (S) antigen-specific antibodies (32.7-fold increase versus 2.6, p < 0.0001) and sVNT neutralising antibodies (3.4-fold increase versus 1.8, p < 0.0001), whereas the homologous arm demonstrated a significant increase in the levels of nucleocapsid (N) antigen-specific antibodies (3.8-fold increase versus none). Non-serious adverse events (injection site pain, fever, and fatigue) were more commonly reported in the heterologous arm, but no serious adverse events occurred.ConclusionHeterologous prime-boost vaccination with the mRNA BNT162b2 (Pfizer) vaccine in those who had received two doses of inactivated virus BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm) vaccine demonstrated a more robust immune response against SARS-CoV-2 than the homologous BBIBP booster and appears safe and well tolerated. Clinical Trial Registry Number (ClinicalTrials.gov): NCT04993560.

Dataset Information

Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.

Publications

Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.

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