Dataset Information

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

Methods

SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data.

Results

Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period.

Conclusions

SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Romero LM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10662637 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

Sánchez-Romero Luz María LM Liber Alex C AC Li Yameng Y Yuan Zhe Z Tam Jamie J Travis Nargiz N Jeon Jihyoun J Issabakhsh Mona M Meza Rafael R Levy David T DT

BMC public health 20231121 1

<h4>Background</h4>Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.<h4>Methods</h4>SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the a ...[more]

PMID: 37990171

Similar Datasets

Project description:IntroductionHeated tobacco products (HTP) have diversified global tobacco markets, and user characteristics remain understudied. This study evaluated sociodemographic characteristics, nicotine-related perceptions, and behaviors of current HTP users within a sample of adult (18+ years) nicotine users across four countries.Aims and methodsData were from current smokers or nicotine vaping product (NVP; known as "e-cigarettes") users from Canada, England, the United States, and Australia (n = 11 421) who participated in the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Current (at-least-monthly) HTP users were characterized (n = 441), and weighted multivariable logistic regressions examined correlates of HTP use.ResultsCompared to nonusers, current HTP users were younger (mean age: 44.4 vs 31.0 years; p < .001) and had higher socioeconomic status (p < .001). A majority of current HTP users used HTPs nondaily (daily: 40.3% vs nondaily: 59.7%). Most HTP users concurrently used both cigarettes and NVPs (90.5%). Among concurrent cigarette-HTP-NVP users, 36.2% used all three products daily. Use of other combusted tobacco products (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe/hookah), cannabis, and binge drinking were each associated with current HTP use. HTP use was more common among smokers intending to quit within 6 months or reporting a quit attempt in the past 18 months, and vapers who had experienced negative side effects.ConclusionHTP users in this sample tended to be younger and more affluent. Most reported concurrent use of multiple nicotine products and other substances. Those cigarette smokers who used HTPs appeared more interested in smoking cessation, while some characteristics of concurrent HTP-NVP users were suggestive of dissatisfaction with NVPs.ImplicationsFew studies have scrutinized characteristics of HTP early adopters in emerging markets. Our results indicate that in 2018, characteristics of established nicotine users who adopted HTP use in four high-income Western countries mirror those of HTP users in East Asian markets (South Korea and Japan) where HTPs are popular. HTP users reported high levels of concurrent use of noncigarette-combusted tobacco products (e.g., cigars, pipe tobacco). These findings point to the need for future longitudinal studies of HTP use given the implications of those use patterns on the harm reduction potential of HTPs. HTP user characteristics may yield important information to consider in regulation of these products.

Project description:IntroductionTo examine whether perceived injunctive and descriptive social norms towards cigarette and nicotine vaping product (NVP) use predicted subsequent trying NVPs and attempts to quit cigarette smoking amongst current smokers and whether associations varied across countries.Aims and methodsThree waves of longitudinal cohort data from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey were collected between 2016 and 2020 from 2290 adult smokers in Canada, Australia, England, and the United States who had never used NVPs at baseline (either wave 1 or wave 2) and followed up at the subsequent wave (wave 2 or wave 3, respectively) were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations.ResultsOf the injunctive and descriptive norm measures for smoking and NVP use, NVP initiation was only independently predicted by the injunctive interpersonal norm for NVP use, with perceived approval of NVP use by important others predicting higher odds of trying NVPs (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.20 to 2.27). This predictive effect was independent of baseline quit intention with no country variations found. By contrast, making cigarette smoking quit attempts were independently predicted by both injunctive and descriptive interpersonal norms with perceived disapproval of smoking by important others (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.38 to 1.99) and close friends using NVPs (AOR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.79), both associated with higher odds of smoking quit attempts.ConclusionsAdult smokers who perceive NVP use as normative, either because such behavior is socially approved or common within their close social networks, appear more inclined to try NVPs or make smoking quit attempts than smokers who do not.ImplicationsSocial norms can shape a person's behavior and result in behavior change. This study shows that initiation of NVP use behavior among smokers can be reliably predicted by their perception of whether NVP use is acceptable to those important to them within their close social networks. Similarly, any attempts to stop cigarette smoking can be predicted by their perception of how acceptable cigarette smoking is among those who are important to them and whether any of their close friends use NVPs. Changing social norms towards cigarette smoking and NVP use could therefore be incorporated into smoking cessation interventions to help smokers to quit and/or switch to NVP use.

Project description:AimsTo examine whether norms towards nicotine vaping product (NVP) use varied between Australia, Canada, England and the United States and by socio-demographics, smoking and NVP status.DesignCross-sectional data from the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey.SettingFour countries with distinct regulatory policies relating to the sale and advertising of NVPs: Australia (most restrictive), Canada (restrictive), England and the United States (least restrictive).ParticipantsA total of 10900 adult (age 18+) current smokers, former smokers, or at least weekly NVP users. Respondents were from Australia (n = 1366), Canada (n = 3309), England (n = 3835) and the United States (n = 2390).MeasurementsQuestions permitted the categorization of respondents as current smokers, former smokers, NVP users and socio-demographic categories (sex, age, country, ethnicity, income and education). Further questions were asked regarding the frequency of exposure to NVPs in public, whether they had a partner or close friends who vaped and whether they believed society or those considered important to them approved of NVPs.FindingsAdjusting for relevant covariates, compared with Australian respondents, those in England, Canada and the United States were more likely to report frequent exposure to NVPs in public (83.1%, 57.3% and 48.3%, respectively, compared to 19.8% in Australia; P < 0.0001), having a partner who vaped (13.8%, 7.1% and 7.7%, respectively, compared to 2.1% in Australia; P < 0.0001) and having close friend(s) who vaped (31.7%, 25.3%, 20.9%, respectively, compared to 10.0% in Australia; P < 0.0001). Compared with Australian respondents, respondents from England were more likely to report that society (27.6% compared to 12.3% in Australia; P < 0.0001) and people important to them approved of NVP use (28.9% compared to 14.3% in Australia; P < 0.0001).ConclusionsNorms towards nicotine vaping product (NVP) use appear to vary among countries with different regulatory contexts regarding sales and advertising.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Debate exists about whether health professionals (HPs) should advise smokers to use nicotine vaping products (NVPs) to quit smoking. The objectives were to examine in four countries: (1) the prevalence of HP discussions and recommendations to use an NVP; (2) who initiated NVP discussions; (3) the type of HP advice received about NVPs; and (4) smoker's characteristics related to receiving advice about NVPs. DESIGN:Cross-sectional study using multivariable logistic regression analyses on weighted data from the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey (ITC 4CV1). SETTING:Four countries with varying regulations governing the sale and marketing of NVPs: 'most restrictive' (Australia), 'restrictive' (Canada) or 'less restrictive' (England and United States). PARTICIPANTS:A total of 6615 adult smokers who reported having visited an HP in the last year (drawn from the total sample of 12 294 4CV1 respondents, of whom 9398 reported smoking cigarettes daily or weekly). Respondents were from the United States (n = 1518), England (n = 2116), Australia (n = 1046), and Canada (n = 1935). MEASUREMENTS:Participants' survey responses indicated if they were current daily or weekly smokers and had visited an HP in the past year. Among those participants, further questions asked participants to report (1) whether NVPs were discussed, (2) who raised the topic, (3) advice received on use of NVPs and (4) advice received on quitting smoking. FINDINGS:Among the 6615 smokers who visited an HP in the last year, 6.8% reported discussing NVPs with an HP and 2.1% of smokers were encouraged to use an NVP (36.1% of those who had a discussion). Compared with Australia (4.3%), discussing NVPs with an HP was more likely in the United States [8.8%, odds ratio (OR) = 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-3.29] and Canada (7.8%, OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.26-2.78). Smokers in Australia were less likely to discuss NVPs than smokers in England (6.2%), although this was not statistically significant (OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 0.98-2.20). Overall, the prevalence of HPs recommending NVPs was three times more likely in the United States than in Australia (OR = 3.07, 95% CI = 1.45-6.47), and twice as likely in Canada (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.06-4.87) than in Australia. Australia and England did not differ (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 0.83-3.74). Just over half (54%) of respondents brought up NVPs themselves; there were no significant differences among countries. CONCLUSIONS:Discussions in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States between smokers and health professionals about nicotine vaping products appear to be infrequent, regardless of the regulatory environment. A low percentage of health professionals recommended vaping products. This was particularly evident in Australia, which has the most restrictive regulatory environment of the four countries studied.

Project description:BackgroundWe model the potential impact of relaxing current nicotine vaping product (NVP) restrictions on public health in Australia.Aims and methodsA Restricted NVP Scenario was first developed to project current smoking and vaping rates, where a U.S. smoking model was calibrated to recent Australian trends. To model less restrictive NVP policies, a Permissive NVP Scenario applied rates of switching from smoking to vaping, initiation into NVP and cigarette use, and cessation from smoking and vaping based on U.S. trends. The model measures vaping risk relative to the excess mortality rate of smoking. The public health impacts are measured as the difference between smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Restricted and Permissive NVP Scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted regarding the NVP excess risk and other factors.ResultsAssuming an NVP excess risk of 5% that of smoking, 104.2 thousand SVADs (7.7% reduction) and 2.05 million LYLs (17.3% reduction) are averted during 2017-2080 in the Permissive NVP Scenario compared to the Restricted NVP Scenario. Assuming 40% NVP excess risk, 70 thousand SVADs and 1.2 million LYLs are averted. The impact is sensitive to the rate at which smokers switch to NVPs and quit smoking, and relatively insensitive to the smoking initiation and NVP initiation and cessation rates.ConclusionsThe model suggests the potential for public health gains to be achieved by relaxing NVP access regulations. However, the model would benefit from better information regarding the impact of NVPs on smoking under a relaxation of current restrictions.ImplicationsAustralia has implemented a strong array of cigarette-oriented policies, but has restricted access to NVPs. The Smoking and Vaping Model offers a framework for modeling hypothetical policy scenarios. The Australian model shows the potential for public health gains by maintaining cigarette-oriented policies while relaxing the current restrictive NVP policy. Modeling results under a permissive NVP policy are particularly sensitive to the estimated rates of smoking cessation and switching to vaping, which are not well established and will likely depend on past and future cigarette-oriented policies and the specific NVP policies implemented in Australia.

Project description:BackgroundThe number of countries mandating a nicotine addiction warning label ("warnings") on nicotine vaping products (NVPs) has been increasing. This study examined associations between noticing NVP warnings, perceptions of NVPs, and intentions to use NVPs.Aim and methodsCross-sectional analysis of 12 619 adult NVP users, cigarette smokers, concurrent users of both cigarettes and NVPs, and quitters who participated in the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey (England, Australia, Canada, USA). Logistic regression analyses examined associations between noticing warnings in the past 30 days and perceptions of nicotine harm, NVP harm relative to cigarettes, and NVP addictiveness relative to cigarettes. Associations were also explored between noticing warnings and intentions to use NVPs.ResultsNoticing warnings was higher among NVP users (18.8%) than nonusers (2.1%). Noticing warnings was associated with perceiving nicotine to pose little or no harm to health among NVP users, but there was no association among nonusers. There was little evidence of an association between noticing warnings and perceptions of NVP harms relative to smoking among NVP users and non-users. Noticing warnings was associated with perceiving NVPs as less addictive than cigarettes among nonusers but not NVP users. Among exclusive smokers, noticing warnings was associated with intending to start using NVPs. Among NVP users, there was little evidence of an association between noticing warnings and intentions to continue using/stopping NVPs.ConclusionsNoticing NVP warnings was not associated with increased NVP and nicotine harm perceptions or decreased intentions to use NVPs among adult smokers and vapers.ImplicationsOur findings suggest that noticing NVP warnings may not influence NVP risk perceptions or deter NVP use among adult smokers and vapers. Future research should investigate the impact of warnings on youth and adults who have never smoked or vaped.

Dataset Information

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets