Dataset Information

Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data.

Methods

Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties, we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29, 2020 to June 30, 2022. We included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county, comorbidities, demographic variables, and holiday gatherings.

Findings

Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to admission. Models that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only, increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%. Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions (r = 0.77) with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000 (95% CI = [0.002, 0.025]).

Interpretation

Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data alone. The lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.

SUBMITTER: Hill DT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10665827 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.

Hill Dustin T DT Alazawi Mohammed A MA Moran E Joe EJ Bennett Lydia J LJ Bradley Ian I Collins Mary B MB Gobler Christopher J CJ Green Hyatt H Insaf Tabassum Z TZ Kmush Brittany B Neigel Dana D Raymond Shailla S Wang Mian M Ye Yinyin Y Larsen David A DA

Infectious Disease Modelling 20231031 4

<h4>Background</h4>The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data.<h4>Methods</h4>Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewat ...[more]

PMID: 38023490

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundForecasting models predicting trends in hospitalization rates have the potential to inform hospital management during seasonal epidemics of respiratory diseases and the associated surges caused by acute hospital admissions. Hospital bed requirements for elective surgery could be better planned if it were possible to foresee upcoming peaks in severe respiratory illness admissions. Forecasting models can also guide the use of intervention strategies to decrease the spread of respiratory pathogens and thus prevent local health system overload. In this study, we explore the capability of forecasting models to predict the number of hospital admissions in Auckland, New Zealand, within a three-week time horizon. Furthermore, we evaluate probabilistic forecasts and the impact on model performance when integrating laboratory data describing the circulation of respiratory viruses.MethodsThe dataset used for this exploration results from active hospital surveillance, in which the World Health Organization Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) case definition was consistently used. This research nurse-led surveillance has been implemented in two public hospitals in Auckland and provides a systematic laboratory testing of SARI patients for nine respiratory viruses, including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and rhinovirus. The forecasting strategies used comprise automatic machine learning, one of the most recent generative pre-trained transformers, and established artificial neural network algorithms capable of univariate and multivariate forecasting.ResultsWe found that machine learning models compute more accurate forecasts in comparison to naïve seasonal models. Furthermore, we analyzed the impact of reducing the temporal resolution of forecasts, which decreased the model error of point forecasts and made probabilistic forecasting more reliable. An additional analysis that used the laboratory data revealed strong season-to-season variations in the incidence of respiratory viruses and how this correlates with total hospitalization cases. These variations could explain why it was not possible to improve forecasts by integrating this data.ConclusionsActive SARI surveillance and consistent data collection over time enable these data to be used to predict hospital bed utilization. These findings show the potential of machine learning as support for informing systems for proactive hospital management.

Dataset Information

Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Publications

Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.

Similar Datasets

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