Project description:By 2050, the U.S. plans to increase solar energy from 3% to 45% of the nation's electricity generation. Quantifying wildfire smoke's impact on solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is essential to meet this goal, especially given previous studies documenting sizable PV output losses due to smoke. We quantify smoke-driven changes in baseline solar resource availability [i.e., amount of direct normal (DNI) and global horizontal (GHI) irradiance] at different spatial and temporal scales using radiative transfer model output and satellite-based smoke, aerosol, and cloud observations. We show that irradiance decreases as smoke frequency increases at the state, regional, and national scale. DNI is more sensitive to smoke with sizable losses persisting downwind of fires. Large reductions in GHI-the main PV resource-are possible close to fires, but mean GHI declines minimally (<5%) due to transported smoke. PV resources remain relatively stable across most of CONUS even in extreme fire seasons.
Project description:Filtering half masks belong to the group of personal protective equipment in the work environment. They protect the respiratory tract but may hinder breath and suppress speech. The present work is focused on the attenuation of sound by the half masks known as "filtering facepieces", FFPs, of various construction and filtration efficiency. Rather than study the perception of speech by humans, we used a generator of white noise and artificial speech to obtain objective characteristics of the attenuation. The generator speaker was either covered by an FFP or remained uncovered while a class 1 meter measured sound pressure levels in 1/3 octave bands with center frequencies 100-20 kHz at distances from 1 to 5 m from the speaker. All five FFPs suppressed acoustic waves from the octave bands with center frequencies of 1 kHz and higher, i.e., in the frequency range responsible for 80% of the perceived speech intelligibility, particularly in the 2 kHz-octave band. FFPs of higher filtration efficiency stronger attenuated the sound. Moreover, the FFPs changed the voice timbre because the attenuation depended on the wave frequency. The two combined factors can impede speech intelligibility.
Project description:Exposure to fine particles in wildfire smoke is deleterious for human health and can increase cases of cardio-respiratory illnesses and related hospitalizations. Neighborhood-level risk factors can increase susceptibility to environmental hazards, such as air pollution from smoke, and the same exposure can lead to different health effects across populations. While the San Diego-Tijuana border can be exposed to the same wildfire smoke event, socio-demographic differences may drive differential effects on population health. We used the October 2007 wildfires, one the most devastating wildfire events in Southern California that brought smoke to the entire region, as a natural experiment to understand the differential effect of wildfire smoke on both sides of the border. We applied synthetic control methods to evaluate the effects of wildfire smoke on cardio-respiratory hospitalizations in the Municipality of Tijuana and San Diego County separately. During the study period (October 11th- October 26th, 2007), 2009 hospital admissions for cardio-respiratory diseases occurred in San Diego County while 37 hospital admissions were reported in the Municipality of Tijuana. The number of cases in Tijuana was much lower than San Diego, and a precise effect of wildfire smoke was detected in San Diego but not in Tijuana. However, social drivers can increase susceptibility to environmental hazards; the poverty rate in Tijuana is more than three times that of San Diego. Socio-demographics are important in modulating the effects of wildfire smoke and can be potentially useful in developing a concerted regional effort to protect populations on both sides of the border from the adverse health effects of wildfire smoke.
Project description:Increases in wildfire activity across the Western US pose a significant public health threat. While there is evidence that wildfire smoke is detrimental for respiratory health, the impacts on cardiovascular health remain unclear. This study evaluates the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from wildfire smoke and unscheduled cardiorespiratory hospital visits in California during the 2004-2009 wildfire seasons. We estimate daily mean wildfire-specific PM2.5 with Goddard Earth Observing System-Chem, a global three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry, with wildfire emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database. We defined a "smoke event day" as cumulative 0-1-day lag wildfire-specific PM2.5 ≥ 98th percentile of cumulative 0-1 lag day wildfire PM2.5. Associations between exposure and outcomes are estimated using negative binomial regression. Results indicate that smoke event days are associated with a 3.3% (95% CI: [0.4%, 6.3%]) increase in visits for all respiratory diseases and a 10.3% (95% CI: [2.3%, 19.0%]) increase for asthma specifically. Stratifying by age, we found the largest effect for asthma among children ages 0-5 years. We observed no significant association between exposure and overall cardiovascular disease, but stratified analyses revealed increases in visits for all cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, and heart failure among non-Hispanic white individuals and those older than 65 years. Further, we found a significant interaction between smoke event days and daily average temperature for all cardiovascular disease visits, suggesting that days with high wildfire PM2.5 concentrations and high temperatures may pose greater risk for cardiovascular disease. These results suggest substantial increases in adverse outcomes from wildfire smoke exposure and indicate the need for improved prevention strategies and adaptations to protect vulnerable populations.
Project description:Wildfire smoke fine particles (PM2.5) are a growing public health threat as wildfire events become more common and intense under climate change, especially in the Western United States. Studies assessing the association between wildfire PM2.5 exposure and health typically summarize the effects over the study area. However, health responses to wildfire PM2.5 may vary spatially. We evaluated spatially-varying respiratory acute care utilization risks associated with short-term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 and explored community characteristics possibly driving spatial heterogeneity. Using ensemble-modeled daily wildfire PM2.5, we defined a wildfire smoke day to have wildfire-specific PM2.5 concentration ≥15 μg/m3. We included daily respiratory emergency department visits and unplanned hospitalizations in 1,396 California ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) and 15 census-derived community characteristics. Employing a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression, we observed increased odds of respiratory acute care utilization on wildfire smoke days at the state level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.07). Across air basins, ORs ranged from 0.88 to 1.57, with the highest effect estimate in San Diego. A within-community matching design and spatial Bayesian hierarchical model also revealed spatial heterogeneity in ZCTA-level rate differences. For example, communities with a higher percentage of Black or Pacific Islander residents had stronger wildfire PM2.5-outcome relationships, while more air conditioning and tree canopy attenuated associations. We found an important heterogeneity in wildfire smoke-related health impacts across air basins, counties, and ZCTAs, and we identified characteristics of vulnerable communities, providing evidence to guide policy development and resource allocation.
Project description:BackgroundCharacterizing factors which determine susceptibility to air pollution is an important step in understanding the distribution of risk in a population and is critical for setting appropriate policies. We evaluate general and specific measures of community health as modifiers of risk for asthma and congestive heart failure following an episode of acute exposure to wildfire smoke.MethodsA population-based study of emergency department visits and daily concentrations of fine particulate matter during a wildfire in North Carolina was performed. Determinants of community health defined by County Health Rankings were evaluated as modifiers of the relative risk. A total of 40 mostly rural counties were included in the study. These rankings measure factors influencing health: health behaviors, access and quality of clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment, as well as, the outcomes of health: premature mortality and morbidity. Pollutant concentrations were obtained from a mathematically modeled smoke forecasting system. Estimates of relative risk for emergency department visits were based on Poisson mixed effects regression models applied to daily visit counts.ResultsFor asthma, the strongest association was observed at lag day 0 with excess relative risk of 66% (28,117). For congestive heart failure the excess relative risk was 42% (5,93). The largest difference in risk was observed after stratifying on the basis of Socio-Economic Factors. Difference in risk between bottom and top ranked counties by Socio-Economic Factors was 85% and 124% for asthma and congestive heart failure respectively.ConclusionsThe results indicate that Socio-Economic Factors should be considered as modifying risk factors in air pollution studies and be evaluated in the assessment of air pollution impacts.
Project description:In recent years, wildland fires have occurred more frequently and with increased intensity in many fire-prone areas. In addition to the direct life and economic losses attributable to wildfires, the emitted smoke is a major contributor to ambient air pollution, leading to significant public health impacts. Wildfire smoke is a complex mixture of particulate matter (PM), gases such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds. PM from wildfire smoke has a high content of elemental carbon and organic carbon, with lesser amounts of metal compounds. Epidemiological studies have consistently found an association between exposure to wildfire smoke (typically monitored as the PM concentration) and increased respiratory morbidity and mortality. However, previous reviews of the health effects of wildfire smoke exposure have not established a conclusive link between wildfire smoke exposure and adverse cardiovascular effects. In this review, we systematically evaluate published epidemiological observations, controlled clinical exposure studies, and toxicological studies focusing on evidence of wildfire smoke exposure and cardiovascular effects, and identify knowledge gaps. Improving exposure assessment and identifying sensitive cardiovascular endpoints will serve to better understand the association between exposure to wildfire smoke and cardiovascular effects and the mechanisms involved. Similarly, filling the knowledge gaps identified in this review will better define adverse cardiovascular health effects of exposure to wildfire smoke, thus informing risk assessments and potentially leading to the development of targeted interventional strategies to mitigate the health impacts of wildfire smoke.
Project description:Climate change impacts and rapid development in the wildland-urban interface are increasing population exposure and vulnerability to the harmful effects of wildfire and wildfire smoke. The direct and indirect effects of these hazards may impact future mobility decisions among populations at risk. To better understand how perceptions and personal experience inform wildfire- and smoke-associated migration intentions, we surveyed a representative sample of 1108 California residents following the 2020 wildfire season. We assessed the associations between threat appraisal, coping appraisal, personal experience, migration intentions, the impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions and place satisfaction, and the potential likelihood of future migration. Results indicate that roughly a third of our sample intended to move in the next 5 years, nearly a quarter of whom reported that wildfire and smoke impacted their migration decision at least a moderate amount. Prior negative outcomes (e.g., evacuating, losing property) were associated with intentions to migrate. Perceived susceptibility and prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions. For those intending to remain in place, prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on place satisfaction, which was in turn associated with a greater reported likelihood of future migration. Our findings suggest that perceptions of and experiences with wildfire and smoke may impact individual mobility decisions. These insights may be leveraged to inform risk communications and outreach campaigns to encourage wildfire and smoke risk mitigation behaviors and to improve climate migration modeling.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-022-00409-w.
Project description:Wildfire smoke adversely impacts respiratory health as fine particles can penetrate deeply into the lungs. Epidemiological studies of differential impacts typically target population subgroups in terms of vulnerability to wildfire smoke. Such information is useful to customize smoke warnings and mitigation actions for specific groups of individuals. In addition to individual vulnerability, it is also important to assess spatial patterns of health impacts to identify vulnerable communities and tailor public health actions during wildfire smoke events.MethodsWe assess the spatiotemporal variation in respiratory hospitalizations in San Diego County during a set of major wildfires in 2007, which led to a substantial public health burden. We propose a spatial within-community matched design analysis, adapted to the study of wildfire impacts, coupled with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, that explicitly considers the spatial variation of respiratory health associated with smoke exposure, compared to reference periods before and after wildfires. We estimate the signal-to-noise ratio to ultimately gauge the precision of the Bayesian model output.ResultsWe find the highest excess hospitalizations in areas covered by smoke, mainly ZIP codes contained by and immediately downwind of wildfire perimeters, and that excess hospitalizations tend to follow the distribution of smoke plumes across space (ZIP codes) and time (days).ConclusionsAnalyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of exposure to wildfire smoke is necessary due to variations in smoke plume extent, particularly in this region where the most damaging wildfires are associated with strong wind conditions.
Project description:Wildfires are becoming more frequent and destructive in a changing climate. Fine particulate matter, PM2.5, in wildfire smoke adversely impacts human health. Recent toxicological studies suggest that wildfire particulate matter may be more toxic than equal doses of ambient PM2.5. Air quality regulations however assume that the toxicity of PM2.5 does not vary across different sources of emission. Assessing whether PM2.5 from wildfires is more or less harmful than PM2.5 from other sources is a pressing public health concern. Here, we isolate the wildfire-specific PM2.5 using a series of statistical approaches and exposure definitions. We found increases in respiratory hospitalizations ranging from 1.3 to up to 10% with a 10 μg m-3 increase in wildfire-specific PM2.5, compared to 0.67 to 1.3% associated with non-wildfire PM2.5. Our conclusions point to the need for air quality policies to consider the variability in PM2.5 impacts on human health according to the sources of emission.