Estimating prevalence of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in the United States
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Spargo D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10682565 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:IntroductionThe goal of this economic model is to estimate an economically justifiable price (EJP) for using donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the United States based on clinical data from the phase 3 TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trial (NCT04437511).MethodsWe adapted an AD Markov state-transition model developed by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review to estimate the EJP for donanemab at different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds from the health care system perspective and the societal perspective as co-base cases.ResultsAssuming a WTP threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, the model estimates a 1-year (13-dose) EJP for donanemab of $80,538 from the health care system perspective and $91,126 from the societal perspective; at a WTP threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained, the model estimates a 1-year (13-dose) EJP for donanemab of $44,691 from the health care system perspective and $55,419 from the societal perspective. Mean total treatment costs per patient at the $150,000 per QALY gained EJP derived from the health care system perspective were estimated at $77,812 based on the average number of doses of donanemab patients received in the co-base case analysis. One-way sensitivity analysis (OWSA) indicated that treatment efficacy, disease severity at the time of treatment initiation, and duration of treatment effect were the main drivers of the potential EJP.ConclusionsResults from this modeling simulation informed by the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 study support an EJP for limited-duration treatment with donanemab that exceeds per-dose list prices for currently available amyloid-targeting therapies, implying potentially lower lifetime costs and better value for money.
| S-EPMC11541978 | biostudies-literature
Project description:SignificanceSeveral negative effects of forced displacement have been well documented, yet we lack reliable measurement of eviction risk in the national perspective. This prevents accurate estimations of the scope and geography of the problem as well as evaluations of policies to reduce housing loss. We construct a nationwide database of eviction filings in the United States. Doing so reveals that 2.7 million households, on average, are threatened with eviction each year; that the highest eviction filing rates are not concentrated solely in high-cost urban areas; and that state-level housing policies are strongly associated with county-level eviction filing risk. These data facilitate an expanded research agenda on the causes and consequences of eviction lawsuits in the United States.
| S-EPMC9173767 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsThe National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) underestimates the true prevalence of HCV infection. By accounting for populations inadequately represented in NHANES, we created 2 models to estimate the national hepatitis C prevalence among US adults during 2017-2020.Approach and resultsThe first approach (NHANES+) replicated previous methodology by supplementing hepatitis C prevalence estimates among the US noninstitutionalized civilian population with a literature review and meta-analysis of hepatitis C prevalence among populations not included in the NHANES sampling frame. In the second approach (persons who injected drugs [PWID] adjustment), we developed a model to account for the underrepresentation of PWID in NHANES by incorporating the estimated number of adult PWID in the United States and applying PWID-specific hepatitis C prevalence estimates. Using the NHANES+ model, we estimated HCV RNA prevalence of 1.0% (95% CI: 0.5%-1.4%) among US adults in 2017-2020, corresponding to 2,463,700 (95% CI: 1,321,700-3,629,400) current HCV infections. Using the PWID adjustment model, we estimated HCV RNA prevalence of 1.6% (95% CI: 0.9%-2.2%), corresponding to 4,043,200 (95% CI: 2,401,800-5,607,100) current HCV infections.ConclusionsDespite years of an effective cure, the estimated prevalence of hepatitis C in 2017-2020 remains unchanged from 2013 to 2016 when using a comparable methodology. When accounting for increased injection drug use, the estimated prevalence of hepatitis C is substantially higher than previously reported. National action is urgently needed to expand testing, increase access to treatment, and improve surveillance, especially among medically underserved populations, to support hepatitis C elimination goals.
| S-EPMC11557732 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionWe forecast the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and evaluated potential impacts of primary and secondary preventions in the United States.MethodsWe used a multistate model incorporating biomarkers for preclinical AD with US population projections.ResultsApproximately 6.08 million Americans had either clinical AD or mild cognitive impairment due to AD in 2017 and that will grow to 15.0 million by 2060. In 2017, 46.7 million Americans had preclinical AD (amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, or both), although many may not progress to clinical disease during their lifetimes. Primary and secondary preventions have differential impact on future disease burden.DiscussionBecause large numbers of persons are living with preclinical AD, our results underscore the need for secondary preventions for persons with existing AD brain pathology who are likely to develop clinical disease during their lifetimes as well as primary preventions for persons without preclinical disease.
| S-EPMC5803316 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionLanabecestat, a beta-site amyloid precursor protein-cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1) inhibitor, was investigated as a potential Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatment. As previously reported, amyloid beta (Aβ) neuritic plaque burden reduction did not result in clinical benefit. Lanabecestat's effects on neuroimaging biomarkers and correlations between neuroimaging biomarkers and efficacy measures are reported.MethodsAMARANTH and DAYBREAK-ALZ were 104- and 78-week, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies of lanabecestat in early symptomatic AD (AMARANTH) and mild AD dementia (DAYBREAK-ALZ). Patients randomly (1:1:1) received placebo, lanabecestat 20 mg, or lanabecestat 50 mg daily (AMARANTH, n = 2218; DAYBREAK-ALZ, n = 1722). Florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET), fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, flortaucipir PET, and volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were used to measure Aβ neuritic plaque burden, cerebral metabolism, aggregated tau neurofibrillary tangles, and brain volume, respectively. Additionally, florbetapir perfusion scans were performed in DAYBREAK-ALZ. Efficacy measures included 13-item Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale, Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Activities of Daily Living Inventory, Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes, Functional Activities Questionnaire, and Mini-Mental State Examination. These studies stopped early due to futility.ResultsDespite previously observed annualized reduction in Aβ neuritic plaque burden, there were no treatment differences in annualized change of aggregated tau neurofibrillary tangle burden (AMARANTH, n = 284; DAYBREAK-ALZ, n = 70), cerebral metabolism (AMARANTH, n = 260; DAYBREAK-ALZ, n = 38) and perfusion (DAYBREAK-ALZ, n = 213). Greater brain volume reduction (AMARANTH, n = 1697 [whole brain]; DAYBREAK-ALZ, n = 650 [whole brain]) occurred on lanabecestat compared to placebo. Higher baseline aggregated tau neurofibrillary tangle burden, lower cerebral metabolism, and lower brain volumes correlated with poorer baseline efficacy scores and greater clinical worsening. Lower baseline cerebral perfusion correlated with poorer baseline efficacy scores. Reduction in cerebral metabolism or whole brain volume correlated with clinical worsening, regardless of treatment assignment.DiscussionTau pathology and cerebral metabolism assessments showed no evidence of lanabecestat slowing pathophysiologic progression of AD. Lanabecestat exposure was associated with brain volume reductions. Correlations between imaging measures and cognitive assessments may aid future study design.
| S-EPMC7882543 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is the most commonly reported bloodborne infection in the United States, causing substantial morbidity and mortality and costing billions of dollars annually. To update the estimated HCV prevalence among all adults aged ≥18 years in the United States, we analyzed 2013-2016 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the prevalence of HCV in the noninstitutionalized civilian population and used a combination of literature reviews and population size estimation approaches to estimate the HCV prevalence and population sizes for four additional populations: incarcerated people, unsheltered homeless people, active-duty military personnel, and nursing home residents. We estimated that during 2013-2016 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.0%) of all adults in the United States, approximately 4.1 (3.4-4.9) million persons, were HCV antibody-positive (indicating past or current infection) and that 1.0% (95% CI, 0.8-1.1%) of all adults, approximately 2.4 (2.0-2.8) million persons, were HCV RNA-positive (indicating current infection). This includes 3.7 million noninstitutionalized civilian adults in the United States with HCV antibodies and 2.1 million with HCV RNA and an estimated 0.38 million HCV antibody-positive persons and 0.25 million HCV RNA-positive persons not part of the 2013-2016 NHANES sampling frame. Conclusion: Over 2 million people in the United States had current HCV infection during 2013-2016; compared to past estimates based on similar methodology, HCV antibody prevalence may have increased, while RNA prevalence may have decreased, likely reflecting the combination of the opioid crisis, curative treatment for HCV infection, and mortality among the HCV-infected population; efforts on multiple fronts are needed to combat the evolving HCV epidemic, including increasing capacity for and access to HCV testing, linkage to care, and cure.
| S-EPMC6719781 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionClinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) begins with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and progresses to mild, moderate, or severe dementia, constituting a disease continuum that eventually leads to death. This study aimed to estimate the probabilities of transitions across those disease states.MethodsWe developed a mixed-effects multi-state Markov model to estimate the transition probabilities, adjusted for 5 baseline covariates, using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) database. HRS surveys older adults in the United States bi-annually. Alzheimer states were defined using the modified Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status (TICS-m).ResultsA total of 11,292 AD patients were analyzed. Patients were 70.8 ± 9.0 years old, 54.9% female, and with 12.0 ± 3.3 years of education. Within 1 year from the initial state, the model estimated a higher probability of transition to the next AD state in earlier disease: 12.8% from MCI to mild AD and 5.0% from mild to moderate AD, but < 1% from moderate to severe AD. After 10 years, the probability of transition to the next state was markedly higher for all states, but still higher in earlier disease: 29.8% from MCI to mild AD, 23.5% from mild to moderate AD, and 5.7% from moderate to severe AD. Across all AD states, the probability of transition to death was < 5% after 1 year and > 15% after 10 years. Older age, fewer years of education, unemployment, and nursing home stay were associated with a higher risk of disease progression (p < 0.01).ConclusionsThis analysis shows that the risk of progression is greater in earlier AD states, increases over time, and is higher in patients who are older, with fewer years of education, unemployed, or in a nursing home at baseline. The estimated transition probabilities can provide guidance for future disease management and clinical trial design optimization, and can be used to refine existing cost-effectiveness frameworks.
| S-EPMC10310620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19.MethodsWe evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data.ResultsThere were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I.ConclusionsExcess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity.
| S-EPMC7217085 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia, causing progressive decline of memory, thinking, and behavior, impairing daily functioning. Early AD (eAD) includes mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild AD dementia.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate symptomatic treatment prevalence and treatment patterns in eAD.MethodsEmbase, MEDLINE, and EBM Reviews were searched in November 2021 for observational studies reporting symptomatic treatment patterns in eAD. The range of patients receiving treatment was collated. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) prevalence tool. Two independent reviewers screened the records, one performed data extraction and quality assessment while a second checked.ResultsTwenty-one studies (prospective and retrospective cohorts, cross-sectional studies, and a survey) were included. Population size ranged from 23 to 2,028. Worldwide, 18 to 35% of patients diagnosed with MCI due to AD received any AChE inhibitor (three studies; n = 631), 7 to 8% memantine (two studies; n = 229), and 9% combination therapy (one study; n = 402). Patients receiving no treatment ranged from 41 to 54% (two studies; n = 733). Worldwide, in mild AD dementia patients, 13 to 89% received any AChE inhibitor (six studies; n = 3,715), 1 to 21% memantine (five studies, n = 3,527), and 0.4 to 39% combination therapy (four studies, n = 3,018). Patients receiving no treatment ranged from 9 to 26% (five studies, n = 4,073).ConclusionLimitations in reporting led to unclear risk of bias. The results reveal a pattern of use of symptomatic treatment in eAD beyond approved labels and highlights the opportunity for new consensus guidelines to inform clinical practice.
| S-EPMC9881030 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We fit a power law distribution to US foodborne disease outbreaks to assess underdetection and underreporting. We predicted that 788 fewer than expected small outbreaks were identified annually during 1998-2017 and 365 fewer during 2018-2019, after whole-genome sequencing was implemented. Power law can help assess effectiveness of public health interventions.
| S-EPMC10826756 | biostudies-literature