Dataset Information

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year.

Methods

We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries.

Results

We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites.

Conclusion

Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children.

SUBMITTER: Clark A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10689250 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality.

Clark Andrew A Mahmud Sarwat S Debellut Frederic F Pecenka Clint C Jit Mark M Perin Jamie J Tate Jacqueline J Soeters Heidi M HM Black Robert E RE Santosham Mathuram M Sanderson Colin C

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20231018

<h4>Objectives</h4>We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries.<h4>Results</h4>We estimate that rotavirus v ...[more]

PMID: 37863311

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Project description:IntroductionProducing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1-4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s.Methods and findingsSimple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1-4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter.ConclusionsThe methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundAvailable live-oral rotavirus vaccines are associated with low to moderate performance in low- and middle-income settings. There is limited evidence relating to how the vaccine dosing schedule might be adjusted to improve vaccine performance in these settings.MethodsWe used mathematical models fitted to rotavirus surveillance data for children <5 years of age from three different hospitals in Ghana (Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo) to project the impact of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year period (April 2012-March 2022). We quantified and compared the impact of the previous vaccination program in Ghana to the model-predicted impact for other vaccine dosing schedules across the three hospitals and the entire country, under different assumptions about vaccine protection. To project the rotavirus vaccine impact over Ghana, we sampled from the range of model parameters for Accra and Navrongo, assuming that these two settings represent the "extremes" of rotavirus epidemiology within Ghana.ResultsFor the previously implemented 6/10-week monovalent Rotarix vaccine (RV1) schedule, the model-estimated average annual incidence of moderate-to-severe rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) ranged between 1,151 and 3,002 per 100,000 people per year over the 10-year period for the three sites. Compared to no vaccination, the model-estimated median percentage reductions in RVGE ranged from 28-85% and 12-71% among children <1 year and <5 years of age respectively, with the highest and lowest percentage reductions predicted using model parameters estimated for Accra and Navrongo, respectively. The median predicted reductions in RVGE for the whole country ranged from 57-66% and 35-45% among children <1 year and <5 years of age, respectively. The 1/6/10- and 6/10/14-week schedules provided the best and comparable reductions in RVGE compared to the original 6/10-week schedule, whereas there was no improvement in impact for the 10/14-week schedule.ConclusionsWe found that administering an additional dose of RV1 might be an effective strategy to improve rotavirus vaccine impact, particularly in settings with low vaccine effectiveness. The results could be extrapolated to other countries using a 2-dose vaccine schedule with low to moderate vaccine performance.

Project description:BackgroundRotavirus vaccine use in national immunisation programmes has led to declines in hospital admissions for rotavirus gastroenteritis among children; however, the global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction has not been described using primary data. We describe the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on admissions for acute rotavirus gastroenteritis in primarily low-income and middle-income countries, using 9 years of data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (GRSN).MethodsBetween Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, children younger than 5 years of age who were admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis were prospectively enrolled in GRSN sites. We included sites that enrolled children and collected stool specimens monthly and tested at least 100 specimens annually in the impact analysis, with a separate analysis taking into account site continuity. We compared proportions of acute gastroenteritis cases positive for rotavirus in the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods and calculated mean proportion changes for WHO regions, with 95% CIs; these findings were then compared with interrupted time series analyses. We did further sensitivity analyses to account for rotavirus vaccination coverage levels and sites that collected specimens for at least 11 months per year and tested at least 80 specimens per year. We also analysed the age distribution of rotavirus-positive cases before and after vaccine introduction.Findings403 140 children younger than 5 years of age admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis from 349 sites in 82 countries were enrolled over the study period, of whom 132 736 (32·9%) were positive for rotavirus. We included 305 789 children from 198 sites in 69 countries in the impact analysis. In countries that had not introduced rotavirus vaccine in their national immunisation programmes, rotavirus was detected in 38·0% (95% CI 4·8-73·4) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis annually whereas in those that have introduced the vaccine, rotavirus was detected in 23·0% (0·7-57·7) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis, showing a 39·6% (35·4-43·8) relative decline following introduction. Interrupted time series analyses confirmed these findings. Reductions by WHO regions ranged from 26·4% (15·0-37·8) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to 55·2% (43·0-67·4) in the European Region and were sustained in nine countries (contributing up to 31 sites) for 6-10 years. The age distribution of children with rotavirus gastroenteritis shifted towards older children after rotavirus vaccine introduction.InterpretationA significant and sustained reduction in the proportion of hospital admissions for acute gastroenteritis due to rotavirus was seen among children younger than 5 years in GRSN sites following rotavirus vaccine introduction. These findings highlight the need to incorporate rotavirus vaccines into immunisation programmes in countries that have not yet introduced them and underline the importance of high-quality surveillance.FundingThe GRSN receives funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No specific funding was provided for this Article.

Dataset Information

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality.

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