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Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics.

ABSTRACT: We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant periods, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in the approximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can be explained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors for distinct conflict eras and organizational regions. In this way, our findings open the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms of local conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict.

SUBMITTER: Tkacova K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10692117 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics.

Tkacova Katerina K Idler Annette A Johnson Neil N López Eduardo E

Scientific reports 20231201 1

We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant periods, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specif ...[more]

PMID: 38040778

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Project description:BackgroundSince 2014, over 1.6 million people have been forcibly displaced by the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In 2014, 8% of reproductive-aged women in Ukraine had ever experienced sexual violence, compared to 5% in 2007. This increase was driven by non-domestic sexual violence. Our study examined characteristics of women in eastern Ukraine receiving psychosocial services following sexual violence compared to survivors of other forms of gender-based violence.MethodsIntake data collected between February 2016 and June 2017 by psychosocial service providers in five conflict-affected areas of Ukraine from women, aged 15-49, (N = 8525), was analyzed. Descriptive analysis and covariate adjusted logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to identify socioeconomic, incident and access to services factors associated with having experienced sexual violence compared to other forms of violence.ResultsAmong this sample of survivors receiving psychosocial services, 2.6% (n = 220) reported experiencing sexual violence. A majority of sexual violence acts reported were committed by non-domestic perpetrators (61.4%); followed by intimate partners (25.9%). Almost half of sexual violence cases occurred at home (49.1%). Experiencing sexual violence was positively associated with being younger, single and internally displaced, and negatively with engaging in unpaid labor, such as childcare. Women who experienced sexual violence delayed seeking care by 4 days compared to other gender-based violence survivors. Sexual violence survivors were less likely than physical violence survivors to have reported the incident prior to receiving care (adjusted odds ratio = 0.39; 95% confidence interval = 0.28-0.54).ConclusionsNon-domestic and intimate partner sexual violence were both prevalent in our sample. Compared to survivors disclosing other types of gender-based violence, sexual violence survivors appear to face unique barriers to reporting and accessing timely care. Prevention and outreach programs tailored to the specific vulnerabilities, such as displacement status, and needs of sexual violence survivors in conflict settings are urgently needed.

Project description:Despite ambitions in development and global health policy to transform communities into supportive environments for women facing risks of violence, our understanding of how to best engage communities remains incomplete. In particular, there is little evidence on the types of strategies that communities employ to address violence against women (VAW). We aimed to describe and analyse the processes involved in community responses to incidents of VAW in a non-governmental organisation (NGO) violence prevention programme in Mumbai, India. We conducted a grounded theory study involving 30 focus group discussions and 36 semi-structured interviews with 113 community members and 9 NGO staff, as well as over 170 h of field observation. Informed by comparative case study methods, we compared community actions across six informal settlement neighbourhoods. We found considerable variation in the type of action taken across neighbourhoods. This variation was not arbitrary, but reflected systematic cost-benefit considerations in heterogeneous environments, accounting for factors such as trust in neighbours, violent (armed or gang-related) crime, and corruption in state institutions. We found that institutional action was only favoured in neighbourhoods with strong state capacity and high social capital, whilst remedial action-resolving violence through 'private' talks in the family and community-and radical action involving extra-judicial violence-became favourable under conditions of weak social capital or low state capacity. Institutional action was, however, sometimes as violent as radical action, as police were reported, sometimes even relied upon, by residents to use force against perpetrators of VAW. We argue that these contextual features oblige policymakers and prevention researchers to grapple with contentious issues such as the legitimate use of force by the state. We caution against maximising community action without a clear vision of the type of action hoped for.

Project description:BackgroundThe relationship between exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality has not been studied empirically using rigorous methods and appropriate data. We investigated the association between reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Colombia.Methods and findingsWe adopted a regression discontinuity (RD) design using the July 20, 2015 cease-fire declared during the Colombian peace process as an exogenous discontinuous change in exposure to conflict events during pregnancy, comparing women with conception dates before and after the cease-fire date. We constructed the cohorts of all pregnant women in Colombia for each day between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 using birth and death certificates. A total of 3,254,696 women were followed until the end of pregnancy. We measured conflict exposure as the total number of conflict events that occurred in the municipality where a pregnant woman lived during her pregnancy. We first assessed whether the cease-fire did induce a discontinuous fall in conflict exposure for women with conception dates after the cease-fire to then estimate the association of this reduced exposure with the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality. We found that the July 20, 2015 cease-fire was associated with a reduction of the average number of conflict events (from 2.64 to 2.40) to which women were exposed during pregnancy in their municipalities of residence (mean differences -0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.35 to -0.13; p < 0.001). This association was greater in municipalities where Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) had a greater presence historically. The reduction in average exposure to conflict violence was, in turn, associated with a decrease of 9.53 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -16.13 to -2.93; p = 0.005) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 90th percentile of the distribution of FARC-related conflict events and a decrease of 7.57 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies (95% CI -13.14 to -2.00; p = 0.01) for municipalities with total number of FARC-related violent events above the 75th percentile of FARC-related events. For perinatal mortality, we found associated reductions of 10.69 (95% CI -18.32 to -3.05; p = 0.01) and 6.86 (95% CI -13.24 to -0.48; p = 0.04) deaths per 1,000 pregnancies for the 2 types of municipalities, respectively. We found no association with miscarriages. Formal tests support the validity of the key RD assumptions in our data, while a battery of sensitivity analyses and falsification tests confirm the robustness of our empirical results. The main limitations of the study are the retrospective nature of the information sources and the potential for conflict exposure misclassification.ConclusionsOur study offers evidence that reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy is associated with important (previously unmeasured) benefits in terms of reducing the risk of stillbirth and perinatal deaths. The findings are consistent with such beneficial associations manifesting themselves mainly through reduced violence exposure during the early stages of pregnancy. Beyond the relevance of this evidence for other countries beset by chronic armed conflicts, our results suggest that the fledgling Colombian peace process may be already contributing to better population health.

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Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics.

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Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics.

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