Approximate Bayesian computation and ecological niche models elucidate the demographic history and current fragmented population distribution of a Korean endemic shrub
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ong H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10700048 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology).
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Project description:Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in commercial arrays have often been discovered in a small number of samples from selected populations. This ascertainment skews patterns of nucleotide diversity and affects population genetic inferences. We propose a demographic inference pipeline that explicitly models the SNP discovery protocol in an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We simulated genomic regions according to a demographic model incorporating parameters for the divergence of three well-characterized HapMap populations and recreated the SNP distribution of a commercial array by varying the number of haploid samples and the allele frequency cut-off in the given regions. We then calculated summary statistics obtained from both the ascertained and genomic data and inferred ascertainment and demographic parameters. We implemented our pipeline to study the admixture process that gave rise to the present-day Mexican population. Our estimate of the time of admixture is closer to the historical dates than those in previous works which did not consider ascertainment bias. Although the use of whole genome sequences for demographic inference is becoming the norm, there are still underrepresented areas of the world from where only SNP array data are available. Our inference framework is applicable to those cases and will help with the demographic inference.
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