A potential transition from a concentrated to a generalized HIV epidemic: the case of Madagascar.

ABSTRACT:

Background

HIV expansion is controlled by a range of interrelated factors, including the natural history of HIV infection and socio-economical and structural factors. However, how they dynamically interact in particular contexts to drive a transition from concentrated HIV epidemics in vulnerable groups to generalized epidemics is poorly understood. We aim to explore these mechanisms, using Madagascar as a case-study.

Methods

We developed a compartmental dynamic model using available data from Madagascar, a country with a contrasting concentrated epidemic, to explore the interaction between these factors with special consideration of commercial and transactional sex as HIV-infection drivers.

Results

The model predicts sigmoidal-like prevalence curves with turning point

SUBMITTER: Alonso D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10702038 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature