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A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China.

ABSTRACT: Climate policies can have a significant impact on the economy. However, these policies have often been associated with uncertainty. Quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic impact of climate policy uncertainty is equally or perhaps more important than looking at the policies themselves. Using a deep learning algorithm-the MacBERT model-this study constructed indices of Chinese climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) at the national, provincial and city levels for the first time. The CCPU indices are based on the text mining of news published by a set of major newspapers in China. A clear upward trend was found in the indices, demonstrating increasing policy uncertainties in China in addressing climate change. There is also evidence of clear regional heterogeneity in subnational indices. The CCPU dataset can provide a useful source of information for government actors, academics and investors in understanding the dynamics of climate policies in China. These indices can also be used to investigate the empirical relationship between climate policy uncertainty and other socioeconomic factors in China.

SUBMITTER: Ma YR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10709629 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China.

Ma Yan-Ran YR Liu Zhenhua Z Ma Dandan D Zhai Pengxiang P Guo Kun K Zhang Dayong D Ji Qiang Q

Scientific data 20231208 1

Climate policies can have a significant impact on the economy. However, these policies have often been associated with uncertainty. Quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic impact of climate policy uncertainty is equally or perhaps more important than looking at the policies themselves. Using a deep learning algorithm-the MacBERT model-this study constructed indices of Chinese climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) at the national, provincial and city levels for the first time. The CCPU indices a ...[more]

PMID: 38065994

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Project description:BackgroundFrom the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, a series of health measures and policies have been introduced from the central to the local level in China. However, no study has constructed an uncertainty index that can reflect the volatility, risk, and policy characteristics of the health environment.ObjectiveWe used text mining analysis on mainstream newspapers to quantify the volume of reports about health policy and the total number of news articles and to construct a series of indexes that could reflect the uncertainty of health policy in China.MethodsUsing the Wisenews database, 11 of the most influential newspapers in mainland China were selected to obtain the sample articles. The health policy uncertainty (HPU) index for each month from 2003 to 2022 was constructed by searching articles containing the specified keywords and calculating their frequency. Robustness tests were conducted through correlation analysis. The HPU index was plotted using STATA (version 16.0), and a comparative analysis of the China and US HPU indexes was then performed.ResultsWe retrieved 6482 sample articles from 7.49 million news articles in 11 newspapers. The China HPU index was constructed, and the robustness test showed a correlation coefficient greater than 0.74, which indicates good robustness. Key health events can cause index fluctuations. At the beginning of COVID-19 (May 2020), the HPU index climbed to 502.0. In December 2022, China's HPU index reached its highest value of 613.8 after the release of the "New Ten Rules" pandemic prevention and control policy. There were significant differences in HPU index fluctuations between China and the United States during SARS and COVID-19, as well as during the Affordable Care Act period.ConclusionsNational health policy is a guide for health development, and uncertainty in health policy can affect not only the implementation of policy by managers but also the health-seeking behavior of the people. Here, we conclude that changes in critical health policies, major national or international events, and infectious diseases with widespread impact can create significant uncertainty in China's health policies. The uncertainty of health policies in China and the United States is quite different due to different political systems and news environments. What is the same is that COVID-19 has brought great policy volatility to both countries. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first systematic text mining study of HPU in China.

Dataset Information

A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China.

Publications

A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China.

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