Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.

Methods

We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Results

We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older

SUBMITTER: Bents SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10710953 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature