Spread in climate policy scenarios unravelled.

ABSTRACT: Analysis of climate policy scenarios has become an important tool for identifying mitigation strategies, as shown in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report¹. The key outcomes of these scenarios differ substantially not only because of model and climate target differences but also because of different assumptions on behavioural, technological and socio-economic developments^2-4. A comprehensive attribution of the spread in climate policy scenarios helps policymakers, stakeholders and scientists to cope with large uncertainties in this field. Here we attribute this spread to the underlying drivers using Sobol decomposition⁵, yielding the importance of each driver for scenario outcomes. As expected, the climate target expl

SUBMITTER: Dekker MM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10719090 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature