Trends and projections of inflammatory bowel disease at the global, regional and national levels, 1990-2050: a bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies.

Methods

Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD.

Results

In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million

SUBMITTER: Zhou JL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10722679 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature