A Markov model of fibrosis development in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease predicts fibrosis progression in clinical cohorts.

ABSTRACT: Disease progression in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is highly heterogenous and remains poorly understood. Fibrosis stage is currently the best predictor for development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. Better understanding and quantifying the impact of factors affecting NASH and fibrosis is essential to inform a clinical study design. We developed a population Markov model to describe the transition probability between fibrosis stages and mortality using a unique clinical nonalcoholic fatty liver disease cohort with serial biopsies over 3 decades. We evaluated covariate effects on all model parameters and performed clinical trial simulations to predict the fibrosis progression rate for external clinical cohorts. All parameters were estimated with good precision. Age and dia

SUBMITTER: Knochel J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10725269 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature