Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2035.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The rising burden of thyroid cancer (TC) is a public health problem in Asia. Predicting the future burden of TC in Asian countries is essential for disease prevention.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for five Asian countries. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict morbidity and mortality to 2035 and calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Furthermore, the estimated annual percentage change was calculated to evaluate the variation of ASIR and ASMR.

Results

By 2035, predictions suggest that cases of TC will reach 75.56 × 10³ in China, 70.22 × 10³ in India, 15.78 × 10³ in the Republic of Korea, 9.01 × 10³ in Japan

SUBMITTER: Tang SD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10733153 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature