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Altered RSV Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity Following the COVID-19 Pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. RSV prevalence decreased substantially following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic but later rebounded with initially abnormal seasonality. The biological and epidemiological factors underlying this altered behavior remain poorly defined. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined RSV epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity in the years surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that changes in RSV diagnostic platforms drove increased detections in outpatient settings after 2020 and that hospitalized adults with RSV-A were at higher risk of needing intensive care than those with RSV-B. While the population structure of RSV-A remained unchanged, the population structure of RSV-B shifted in geographically distinct clusters. Mutations in the antigenic regions of the fusion protein suggest convergent evolution with potential implications for vaccine and therapeutic development.

SUBMITTER: Hultquist J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10760306 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Altered RSV Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity Following the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Hultquist Judd J Rios-Guzman Estefany E Simons Lacy L Dean Taylor T Agnes Francesca F Pawlowski Anna A Alisoltanidehkordi Arghavan A Nam Hannah H Ison Michael M Ozer Egon E Lorenzo-Redondo Ramon R

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Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. RSV prevalence decreased substantially following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic but later rebounded with initially abnormal seasonality. The biological and epidemiological factors underlying this altered behavior remain poorly defined. In this retrospective cohort stud ...[more]

PMID: 38168164

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Project description:IntroductionCOVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 in the UK and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021. We explore how the parameters of RSV epidemiology shape the size and dynamics of post-suppression resurgence and what we can learn about them from the resurgence patterns observed so far.MethodsWe developed an age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV and sampled the parameters governing RSV seasonality, infection susceptibility and post-infection immunity, retaining simulations fitting the UK's pre-pandemic epidemiology by a set of global criteria consistent with likelihood calculations. From Spring 2020 to Summer 2021 we assumed a reduced contact frequency, returning to pre-pandemic levels from Spring 2021. We simulated transmission forwards until 2023 and evaluated the impact of the sampled parameters on the projected trajectories of RSV hospitalisations and compared these to the observed resurgence.ResultsSimulations replicated an out-of-season resurgence of RSV in 2021. If unmitigated, paediatric RSV hospitalisation incidence in the 2021/22 season was projected to increase by 30-60% compared to pre-pandemic levels. The increase was larger if infection risk was primarily determined by immunity acquired from previous exposure rather than age-dependent factors, exceeding 90 % and 130 % in 1-2 and 2-5 year old children, respectively. Analysing the simulations replicating the observed early outbreak in 2021 in addition to pre-pandemic RSV data, we found they were characterised by weaker seasonal forcing, stronger age-dependence of infection susceptibility and higher baseline transmissibility.ConclusionCOVID-19 mitigation measures in the UK stopped RSV circulation in the 2020/21 season and generated immunity debt leading to an early off-season RSV epidemic in 2021. A stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on immunity from previous exposure increases the size of the resurgent season. The early onset of the RSV resurgence in 2021, its marginally increased size relative to previous seasons and its decline by January 2022 suggest a stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on age-related factors, as well as a weaker effect of seasonality and a higher baseline transmissibility. The pattern of resurgence has been complicated by contact levels still not back to pre-pandemic levels. Further fitting of RSV resurgence in multiple countries incorporating data on contact patterns will be needed to further narrow down these parameters and to better predict the pathogen's future trajectory, planning for a potential expansion of new immunisation products against RSV in the coming years.

Project description:ImportanceRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of pediatric hospitalizations.ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiology and burden of RSV-associated hospitalizations among children and adolescents in Canadian tertiary pediatric hospitals from 2017 to 2022, including changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study was conducted during 5 RSV seasons (2017-2018 to 2021-2022) at 13 pediatric tertiary care centers from the Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active (IMPACT) program. Hospitalized children and adolescents aged 0 to 16 years with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection were included.Main outcomes and measuresThe proportion of all-cause admissions associated with RSV and counts and proportions of RSV hospitalizations with intensive care unit (ICU) admission, prolonged stay (≥7 days), and in-hospital mortality were calculated overall and by season, age group, and region. Seasonality was described using epidemic curves. RSV hospitalizations for 2021-2022 were compared with those in the prepandemic period of 2017-2018 through 2019-2020. Bonferroni corrections were applied to P values to adjust for multiple statistical comparisons.ResultsAmong 11 014 RSV-associated hospitalizations in children and adolescents (6035 hospitalizations among male patients [54.8%]; 5488 hospitalizations among patients aged <6 months [49.8%]), 2594 hospitalizations (23.6%) had admission to the ICU, of which 1576 hospitalizations (60.8%) were among children aged less than 6 months. The median (IQR) hospital stay was 4 (2-6) days. The mean (SD) number of RSV-associated hospitalizations during prepandemic seasons was 2522 (88.8) hospitalizations. There were 58 hospitalizations reported in 2020-2021, followed by 3170 hospitalizations in 2021-2022. The proportion of all-cause hospitalizations associated with RSV increased from a mean of 3.2% (95% CI, 3.1%-3.3%) before the pandemic to 4.5% (95% CI, 4.3%-4.6%) in 2021-2022 (difference, 1.3 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5 percentage points; corrected P < .001). A significant increase in RSV-associated hospitalizations was found in 2021-2022 for 3 provinces (difference range, 2.5 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.4-3.6 percentage points for Quebec to 2.9 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.4-3.5 percentage points for Alberta; all corrected P < .001). Age, sex, ICU admission, prolonged length of stay, and case fatality rate did not change in 2021-2022 compared with the prepandemic period. Interregional differences in RSV seasonality were accentuated in 2021-2022, with peaks for 1 province in October, 4 provinces in December, and 3 provinces in April, or May.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that the burden of RSV-associated hospitalizations in Canadian pediatric hospitals was substantial, particularly among infants aged less than 6 months, and RSV hospitalizations increased in 2021-2022 compared with the prepandemic period, while severity of illness remained similar. These findings suggest that RSV preventive strategies for infants aged less than 6 months would be associated with decreased RSV disease burden in children.

Dataset Information

Altered RSV Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity Following the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Publications

Altered RSV Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity Following the COVID-19 Pandemic.

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