Age-specific Mortality Associated with COVID-19 and Seasonal Influenza in Japan: Using Multiple Population-based Databases.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Noda T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10760487 | biostudies-literature | 2022
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Age-specific Mortality Associated with COVID-19 and Seasonal Influenza in Japan: Using Multiple Population-based Databases.
Noda Tatsuya T Okumura Yasuyuki Y Kan-O Keiko K Taniguchi Toshibumi T Suzuki Sadao S Imamura Tomoaki T
Annals of clinical epidemiology 20220803 4
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Project description:ObjectivesThere is no consensus regarding the impact of population density on the transmission of respiratory viral infections such as COVID-19 and seasonal influenza. Our study aimed to determine the correlation between population density and the incidence and duration of COVID-19 transmission.MethodsPublicly available data for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan, from January 2020 through November 2021, were retrospectively collected. The average numbers of seasonal influenza cases reported in the national database from 2013-2014 through 2019-2020 were identified. Using data for COVID-19 and seasonal influenza population density and incidence rates (age-adjusted), the Pearson's correlation coefficient was determined.ResultsA significant positive correlation between log population density and length of outbreak period was observed for COVID-19 (r = 0.734; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza. Additionally, a significant linear correlation was observed between population density and age-adjusted incidence rate for COVID-19 (r = 0.692; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza.ConclusionsIn Japan, areas with high population density experienced a prolonged and more intense COVID-19 outbreak compared with areas with low population density. This was not observed with seasonal influenza, suggesting that public health measures against COVID-19 should be tailored according to population density.
| S-EPMC8754907 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo date, influenza epidemics have been considered suitable for use as a model for the COVID-19 epidemic, given that they are respiratory diseases with similar modes of transmission. However, data directly comparing the two diseases are scarce.MethodsWe did a nationwide retrospective cohort study using the French national administrative database (PMSI), which includes discharge summaries for all hospital admissions in France. All patients hospitalised for COVID-19 from March 1 to April 30, 2020, and all patients hospitalised for influenza between Dec 1, 2018, and Feb 28, 2019, were included. The diagnosis of COVID-19 (International Classification of Diseases [10th edition] codes U07.10, U07.11, U07.12, U07.14, or U07.15) or influenza (J09, J10, or J11) comprised primary, related, or associated diagnosis. Comparisons of risk factors, clinical characteristics, and outcomes between patients hospitalised for COVID-19 and influenza were done, with data also stratified by age group.Findings89 530 patients with COVID-19 and 45 819 patients with influenza were hospitalised in France during the respective study periods. The median age of patients was 68 years (IQR 52-82) for COVID-19 and 71 years (34-84) for influenza. Patients with COVID-19 were more frequently obese or overweight, and more frequently had diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia than patients with influenza, whereas those with influenza more frequently had heart failure, chronic respiratory disease, cirrhosis, and deficiency anaemia. Patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 more frequently developed acute respiratory failure, pulmonary embolism, septic shock, or haemorrhagic stroke than patients with influenza, but less frequently developed myocardial infarction or atrial fibrillation. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with COVID-19 than in patients with influenza (15 104 [16·9%] of 89 530 vs 2640 [5·8%] of 45 819), with a relative risk of death of 2·9 (95% CI 2·8-3·0) and an age-standardised mortality ratio of 2·82. Of the patients hospitalised, the proportion of paediatric patients (<18 years) was smaller for COVID-19 than for influenza (1227 [1·4%] vs 8942 [19·5%]), but a larger proportion of patients younger than 5 years needed intensive care support for COVID-19 than for influenza (14 [2·3%] of 613 vs 65 [0·9%] of 6973). In adolescents (11-17 years), the in-hospital mortality was ten-times higher for COVID-19 than for influenza (five [1·1% of 458 vs one [0·1%] of 804), and patients with COVID-19 were more frequently obese or overweight.InterpretationThe presentation of patients with COVID-19 and seasonal influenza requiring hospitalisation differs considerably. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is likely to have a higher potential for respiratory pathogenicity, leading to more respiratory complications and to higher mortality. In children, although the rate of hospitalisation for COVID-19 appears to be lower than for influenza, in-hospital mortality is higher; however, low patient numbers limit this finding. These findings highlight the importance of appropriate preventive measures for COVID-19, as well as the need for a specific vaccine and treatment.FundingFrench National Research Agency.
| S-EPMC7832247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCardiovascular deaths and influenza epidemics peak during winter in temperate regions.ObjectivesTo quantify the temporal association between population increases in seasonal influenza infections and mortality due to cardiovascular causes and to test if influenza incidence indicators are predictive of cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season.Design, setting, and participantsTime-series analysis of vital statistics records and emergency department visits in New York City, among cardiovascular deaths that occurred during influenza seasons between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012. The 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic period was excluded from temporal analyses.ExposuresEmergency department visits for influenza-like illness, grouped by age (≥0 years and ≥65 years) and scaled by laboratory surveillance data for viral types and subtypes, in the previous 28 days.Main outcomes and measuresMortality due to cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction.ResultsAmong adults 65 years and older, who accounted for 83.0% (73 363 deaths) of nonpandemic cardiovascular mortality during influenza seasons, seasonal average influenza incidence was correlated year to year with excess cardiovascular mortality (Pearson correlation coefficients ≥0.75, P ≤ .05 for 4 different influenza indicators). In daily time-series analyses using 4 different influenza metrics, interquartile range increases in influenza incidence during the previous 21 days were associated with an increase between 2.3% (95% CI, 0.7%-3.9%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-8.9%) for cardiovascular disease mortality and between 2.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-3.6%) and 6.9% (95% CI, 4.0%-9.9%) for ischemic heart disease mortality among adults 65 years and older. The associations were most acute and strongest for myocardial infarction mortality, with each interquartile range increase in influenza incidence during the previous 14 days associated with mortality increases between 5.8% (95% CI, 2.5%-9.1%) and 13.1% (95% CI, 5.3%-20.9%). Out-of-sample prediction of cardiovascular mortality among adults 65 years and older during the 2009-2010 influenza season yielded average estimates with 94.0% accuracy using 4 different influenza metrics.Conclusions and relevanceEmergency department visits for influenza-like illness were associated with and predictive of cardiovascular disease mortality. Retrospective estimation of influenza-attributable cardiovascular mortality burden combined with accurate and reliable influenza forecasts could predict the timing and burden of seasonal increases in cardiovascular mortality.
| S-EPMC5158013 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReplacing traditional surveillance with syndromic surveillance is one of the major interests in public health. However, it is unclear whether the number of influenza patients is associated with the number of telephone triages in Japan.MethodsThis retrospective, observational study was conducted over the six-year period between January 2012 to December 2017. We used the dataset of a telephone triage service in Osaka, Japan and the data on influenza patients published from the Information Center of Infectious Disease in Osaka prefecture. Using a linear regression model, we calculated Spearman's rank-order coefficient and R2 of the regression model to assess the relationship between the number of telephone triages for fever and the number of influenza patients in Osaka. Furthermore, we calculated Spearman's rank-order coefficient and R2 between the predicted weekly number of influenza patients from the linear regression model and the actual weekly number of influenza patients for influenza outbreak season (December-April).ResultsThere were 465,971 patients with influenza, and the number of telephone triages for fever was 420,928 among 1,065,628 total telephone triages during the study period. Our analysis showed that the Spearman rank-order coefficient was 0.932, and R2 and adjusted R2 were 0.869 and 0.842, respectively. The Spearman rank-order coefficient was 0.923 (P<0.001) and R2 was 0.832 in December-April (P<0.001).ConclusionWe revealed a positive relationship in this population between the number of influenza patients and the number of telephone triages for fever.
| S-EPMC7410252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough influenza poses substantial mortality burden, most studies have estimated excess mortality using time-aggregated data. Here, we estimated mortality risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) attributed to seasonal influenza using individual-level data from a nationwide matched cohort.MethodsIndividuals with influenza during four consecutive influenza seasons (2013-2017) (n = 5,497,812) and 1:4 age- and sex-matched individuals without influenza (n = 20,990,683) were identified from a national health insurance database. The endpoint was mortality within 30 days after influenza diagnosis. All-cause and cause-specific mortality risk ratios (RRs) attributed to influenza were estimated. Excess mortality, mortality RR, and PAF of mortality were determined, including for underlying disease subgroups.ResultsExcess mortality rate, mortality RR, and PAF of all-cause mortality were 49.5 per 100,000, 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.63-4.48), and 5.6% (95% CI, 4.5-6.7%). Cause-specific mortality RR (12.85; 95% CI, 9.40-17.55) and PAF (20.7%; 95% CI, 13.2-27.0%) were highest for respiratory diseases. In subgroup analysis according to underlying disorders, PAF of all-cause mortality was 5.9% (95% CI, 0.6-10.7%) for liver disease, 5.8% (95% CI, 2.9-8.5%) for respiratory disease, and 3.8% (95% CI, 1.4-6.1%) for cancer.ConclusionIndividuals with influenza had a 4-fold higher mortality risk than individuals without influenza. Preventing seasonal influenza may lead to 5.6% and 20.7% reductions in all-cause and respiratory mortality, respectively. Individuals with respiratory disease, liver disease, and cancer may benefit from prioritization when establishing influenza prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC10293660 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHistorically, counting influenza recorded in administrative health outcome databases has been considered insufficient to estimate influenza attributable morbidity and mortality in populations. We used database record linkage to evaluate whether modern databases have similar limitations.MethodsPerson-level records were linked across databases of laboratory notified influenza, emergency department (ED) presentations, hospital admissions and death registrations, from the population (∼6.9 million) of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 2005 to 2008.ResultsThere were 2568 virologically diagnosed influenza infections notified. Among those, 25% of 40 who died, 49% of 1451 with a hospital admission and 7% of 1742 with an ED presentation had influenza recorded on the respective database record. Compared with persons aged ≥65 years and residents of regional and remote areas, respectively, children and residents of major cities were more likely to have influenza coded on their admission record. Compared with older persons and admitted patients, respectively, working age persons and non-admitted persons were more likely to have influenza coded on their ED record. On both ED and admission records, persons with influenza type A infection were more likely than those with type B infection to have influenza coded. Among death registrations, hospital admissions and ED presentations with influenza recorded as a cause of illness, 15%, 28% and 1.4%, respectively, also had laboratory notified influenza. Time trends in counts of influenza recorded on the ED, admission and death databases reflected the trend in counts of virologically diagnosed influenza.ConclusionsA minority of the death, hospital admission and ED records for persons with a virologically diagnosed influenza infection identified influenza as a cause of illness. Few database records with influenza recorded as a cause had laboratory confirmation. The databases have limited value for estimating incidence of influenza outcomes, but can be used for monitoring variation in incidence over time.
| S-EPMC4038604 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC11686307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionMultiple myeloma (MM) survival has greatly improved in recent decades. MM is usually diagnosed at a median age of 66-70 years. MM patients do not necessarily die from primary cancer, so cardiovascular health may be a key factor threatening long-term survival. This study was designed to explore the cardiovascular disease mortality (CVM) trends in MM patients and compare them with those in the general population.MethodsIn total, 88,328 MM patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1975-2016) were included. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were used to assess CVM risk.ResultsThe CVM risk was significantly higher in MM patients than in the general population (SMR, 1.84 (95% CI, 1.78-1.89)). MM patients had the highest CVM SMR, at 2.62 (95% CI, 2.49-2.75), in the first year after diagnosis, and it decreased over the follow-up period. Over the study period, the incidence of CVM continued to decrease in MM patients diagnosed at age 65-74 (APC, -1.2% (95% CI, -1.9% to -0.4%)) and ⩾75 years (APC, -1.9% (95% CI, -2.6% to -1.2%)) but not younger. CVM was the second-most common cause of death in patients ⩾75 years. In only MM case analyses, male sex, Black race, older age at diagnosis, and earlier year of diagnosis were poor prognostic factors for heart-specific mortality.ConclusionThe CVM risk in MM patients was significantly higher than that in the general population. To improve survival, cardiovascular health should receive attention upon diagnosis.
| S-EPMC8978329 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTimely monitoring of COVID-19 impact on mortality is critical for rapid risk assessment and public health action.AimBuilding upon well-established models to estimate influenza-related mortality, we propose a new statistical Attributable Mortality Model (AttMOMO), which estimates mortality attributable to one or more pathogens simultaneously (e.g. SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses), while adjusting for seasonality and excess temperatures.MethodsData from Nationwide Danish registers from 2014-week(W)W27 to 2020-W22 were used to exemplify utilities of the model, and to estimate COVID-19 and influenza attributable mortality from 2019-W40 to 2020-W20.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 was registered in Denmark from 2020-W09. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Denmark increased steeply, and peaked in 2020-W14. As preventive measures and national lockdown were implemented from 2020-W12, the attributable mortality started declining within a few weeks. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 from 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 was estimated to 16.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.0 to 20.4) per 100,000 person-years. The 2019/20 influenza season was mild with few deaths attributable to influenza, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.4) per 100,000 person-years.ConclusionAttMOMO estimates mortality attributable to several pathogens simultaneously, providing a fuller picture of mortality by COVID-19 during the pandemic in the context of other seasonal diseases and mortality patterns. Using Danish data, we show that the model accurately estimates mortality attributable to COVID-19 and influenza, respectively. We propose using standardised indicators for pathogen circulation in the population, to make estimates comparable between countries and applicable for timely monitoring.
| S-EPMC7908066 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza is rarely confirmed with laboratory testing and accurate assessment of the overall burden of influenza is difficult. We used statistical modelling methods to generate updated, granular estimates of the number/rate of influenza-attributable hospitalisations and deaths in the United Kingdom. Such data are needed on a continuing basis to inform on cost-benefit analyses of treatment interventions, including vaccination.MethodsWeekly age specific data on hospital admissions (1997-2009) and on deaths (1997-2009) were obtained from national databases. Virology reports (1996-2009) of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus detections were provided by Public Health England. We used an expanded set of ICD-codes to estimate the burden of illness attributable to influenza which we refer to as 'respiratory disease broadly defined'. These codes were chosen to optimise the balance between sensitivity and specificity. A multiple linear regression model controlled for respiratory syncytial virus circulation, with stratification by age and the presence of comorbid risk status (conditions associated with severe influenza outcomes).ResultsIn the United Kingdom there were 28,516 hospitalisations and 7163 deaths estimated to be attributable to influenza respiratory disease in a mean season, with marked variability between seasons. The highest incidence rates of influenza-attributable hospitalisations and deaths were observed in adults aged 75+ years (252/100,000 and 131/100,000 population, respectively). Influenza B hospitalisations were highest among 5-17 year olds (12/100,000 population). Of all estimated influenza respiratory deaths in 75+ year olds, 50 % occurred out of hospital, and 25 % in 50-64 year olds. Rates of hospitalisations and death due to influenza-attributable respiratory disease were increased in adults identified as at-risk.ConclusionsOur study points to a substantial but highly variable seasonal influenza burden in all age groups, particularly affecting 75+ year olds. Effective influenza prevention or early intervention with anti-viral treatment in this age group may substantially impact the disease burden and associated healthcare costs. The high burden of influenza B hospitalisation among 5-17 year olds supports current United Kingdom vaccine policy to extend quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccination to this age group.Trial registrationClinicalTrial.gov, NCT01520935.
| S-EPMC4898386 | biostudies-literature