Time series analysis and short-term forecasting of monkeypox outbreak trends in the 10 major affected countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Considering the rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak, WHO has declared a global health emergency. Still in the category of being endemic, the monkeypox disease shares numerous clinical characters with smallpox. This study focuses on determining the most effective combination of autoregressive integrated moving average model to encapsulate time dependent flow behaviour of the virus with short run prediction.

Methods

This study includes the data of confirmed reported cases and cumulative cases from eight most burdened countries across the globe, over the span of May 18, 2022, to December 31, 2022. The data was assembled from the website of Our World in Data and it involves countries such as United States, Brazil, Spain, France, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, United Kingdom

SUBMITTER: Munir T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10762824 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature