Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

It is uncertain how COVID-19 outbreak influences the hepatitis B epidemics. This study aims to evaluate the effects on hepatitis B owing to the COVID-19 outbreak and forecast the hepatitis B epidemiological trend in mainland China to speed up the course of the "End viral hepatitis Strategy".

Methods

We estimated the causal impacts and created a forecast through adopting monthly notifications of hepatitis B each year from 2005 to 2020 in mainland China using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method.

Results

The hepatitis B epidemics fluctuates irregularly during the period 2005-2007(APC = 8.7, P = 0.246) and 2015-2020(APC = 1.7, P = 0.290), and there is a downturn (APC=-3.2, 95% CI -5.2 to -1.2, P = 0.006) from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China. The CO

SUBMITTER: He CQ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10763123 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature