A stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods.

ABSTRACT: East Asian floods and droughts in summer show a typical dipole pattern with a north-south oscillation centered near 30°N, called the southern drought-northern flood (SDNF) pattern, which has caused significant economic losses and casualties in the past three decades. However, effective explanations and predictions are still challenging, making suitable disaster prevention more difficult. Here, we find that a key predictor of this dipole pattern is the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, tropical winds above 10 km). The QBO can modulate precipitation in East Asia, contributing the largest explained variation of this dipole pattern. A QBO-included statistical model can effectively predict summer floods and droughts at least three months in advance and explain at least 75.8% of precipitation var

SUBMITTER: Zhang R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10764360 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature