Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Each year UNAIDS supports national teams to estimate key HIV indicators using their latest data. These estimates are produced using a collection of models and software tools. This paper describes the demographic and HIV projection models used in this process.

Methods

The demographic model (DemProj) projects the population by sex and single age for each year of the estimate. This information is fed into the HIV model (AIDS Impact Model) to estimate key HIV indicators. The model uses program, survey and surveillance data along with incidence trends produced through 1 of several separate models, to estimate new HIV infections, HIV-related deaths, and the population living with HIV by sex, age, CD4 category, and treatment status.

Results

These models allow the

SUBMITTER: Stover J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10769177 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature