Comparative reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in three African countries using a mathematical model integrating immunity data.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Africa has experienced fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths than other regions, with a contrasting epidemiological situation between countries, raising questions regarding the determinants of disease spread in Africa.

Methods

We built a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model including COVID-19 mortality data where recovery class is structured by specific immunization and modeled by a partial differential equation considering the opposed effects of immunity decline and immunization. This model was applied to Tunisia, Senegal, and Madagascar.

Results

Senegal and Tunisia experienced two epidemic phases. Initially, infections emerged in naive individuals and were limited by social distancing. Variants of concern (VOCs) were also introduced. The second phase wa

SUBMITTER: Naffeti B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10776948 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature