Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Clinical Features-based Machine Learning Models for Predicting COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Timely diagnosis of patients affected by an emerging infectious disease plays a crucial role in treating patients and avoiding disease spread. In prior research, we developed an approach by using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on clinical features of patients visiting an emergency department (ED) during the early coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, we aimed to externally validate this approach within a distinct ED population.

Methods

To create our training/validation cohort (model development) we collected data retrospectively from suspected COVID-19 patients at a US ED from February 23-May 12, 2020. Another dataset was collected as an external validation (testing) cohort from an ED in another country from May 12-June 15, 2021. Clinical features including patient demographics and triage information were used to train and test the models. The primary outcome was the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, defined as a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2. We employed three different ML algorithms, including gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees classifiers, to construct the predictive model. The predictive performances were evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the testing cohort.

Results

In total, 580 and 946 ED patients were included in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Of them, 98 (16.9%) and 180 (19.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. All the constructed ML models showed acceptable discrimination, as indicated by the AUC. Among them, random forest (0.785, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.747-0.822) performed better than gradient boosting (0.774, 95% CI 0.739-0.811) and extra trees classifier (0.72, 95% CI 0.677-0.762). There was no significant difference between the constructed models.

Conclusion

Our study validates the use of ML for predicting COVID-19 in the ED and demonstrates its potential for predicting emerging infectious diseases based on models built by clinical features with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. This approach holds promise for scenarios where effective diagnostic tools for an emerging infectious disease may be lacking in the future.

SUBMITTER: Tay J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10777189 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and External Validation of Clinical Features-based Machine Learning Models for Predicting COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

Tay Joyce J Yen Yi-Hsuan YH Rivera Kevin K Chou Eric H EH Wang Chih-Hung CH Chou Fan-Ya FY Sun Jen-Tang JT Han Shih-Tsung ST Tsai Tzu-Ping TP Chen Yen-Chia YC Bhakta Toral T Tsai Chu-Lin CL Lu Tsung-Chien TC Huei-Ming Ma Matthew M

The western journal of emergency medicine 20240101 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>Timely diagnosis of patients affected by an emerging infectious disease plays a crucial role in treating patients and avoiding disease spread. In prior research, we developed an approach by using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on clinical features of patients visiting an emergency department (ED) during the early coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, we aimed to external ...[more]

PMID: 38205987

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Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Clinical Features-based Machine Learning Models for Predicting COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development and External Validation of Clinical Features-based Machine Learning Models for Predicting COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

Similar Datasets

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