Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease.

ABSTRACT: Streptococcus pneumoniae is an opportunistic pathogen that, while usually carried asymptomatically, can cause severe invasive diseases like meningitis and bacteremic pneumonia. A central goal in S. pneumoniae public health management is to identify which serotypes (immunologically distinct strains) pose the most risk of invasive disease. The most common invasiveness metrics use cross-sectional data (i.e., invasive odds ratios (IOR)), or longitudinal data (i.e., attack rates (AR)). To assess the reliability of these metrics we developed an epidemiological model of carriage and invasive disease. Our mathematical analyses illustrate qualitative failures with the IOR metric (e.g., IOR can decline with increasing invasiveness parameters). Fitting the model to both longitudinal and cross-section

SUBMITTER: Metcalf BJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10786323 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature