Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal.

Objective

This study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence.

Methods

The aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to pop

SUBMITTER: Chen J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10787335 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature