Resource-rational account of sequential effects in human prediction.

ABSTRACT: An abundant literature reports on 'sequential effects' observed when humans make predictions on the basis of stochastic sequences of stimuli. Such sequential effects represent departures from an optimal, Bayesian process. A prominent explanation posits that humans are adapted to changing environments, and erroneously assume non-stationarity of the environment, even if the latter is static. As a result, their predictions fluctuate over time. We propose a different explanation in which sub-optimal and fluctuating predictions result from cognitive constraints (or costs), under which humans however behave rationally. We devise a framework of costly inference, in which we develop two classes of models that differ by the nature of the constraints at play: in one case the precision of beliefs com

SUBMITTER: Prat-Carrabin A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10789490 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature