Dataset Information

Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG and PAK could reduce about 90% of CRS births by introducing RCV with current measles routine coverage and executing supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). However, COD, NGA, and ETH must increase their current routine vaccination coverage to reduce CRS incidence significantly. This study showcases the potential benefits of RCV introduction and reinforces the need for global action to strengthen immunization programs.

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez-Cartes SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10791005 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study.

Rodriguez-Cartes Sebastian A SA Zhang Yiwei Y Mayorga Maria E ME Swann Julie L JL Allaire Benjamin T BT

PLOS global public health 20240116 1

We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG a ...[more]

PMID: 38227558

Similar Datasets

Project description:IntroductionRubella vaccines have been used to prevent rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in several World Health Organization (WHO) regions. Mathematical modelling studies have simulated introduction of rubella-containing vaccines (RCVs), and their results have been used to inform rubella introduction strategies in several countries. This systematic review aimed to synthesize the evidence from mathematical models regarding the impact of introducing RCVs.MethodsWe registered the review in the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) with registration number CRD42020192638. Systematic review methods for classical epidemiological studies and reporting guidelines were followed as far as possible. A comprehensive search strategy was used to identify published and unpublished studies with no language restrictions. We included deterministic and stochastic models that simulated RCV introduction into the public sector vaccination schedule, with a time horizon of at least five years. Models focused only on estimating epidemiological parameters were excluded. Outcomes of interest were time to rubella and CRS elimination, trends in incidence of rubella and CRS, number of vaccinated individuals per CRS case averted, and cost-effectiveness of vaccine introduction strategies. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using a modified risk of bias tool, and a qualitative narrative was provided, given that data synthesis was not feasible.ResultsSeven studies were included from a total of 1393 records retrieved. The methodological quality was scored high for six studies and very high for one study. Quantitative data synthesis was not possible, because only one study reported point estimates and uncertainty intervals for the outcomes. All seven included studies presented trends in rubella incidence, six studies reported trends in CRS incidence, two studies reported the number vaccinated individuals per CRS case averted, and two studies reported an economic evaluation measure. Time to CRS elimination and time to rubella elimination were not reported by any of the included studies. Reported trends in CRS incidence showed elimination within five years of RCV introduction with scenarios involving mass vaccination of older children in addition to routine infant vaccination. CRS incidence was higher with RCV introduction than without RCV when public vaccine coverage was lower than 50% or only private sector vaccination was implemented. Although vaccination of children at a given age achieved slower declines in CRS incidence compared to mass campaigns targeting a wide age range, this approach resulted in the lowest number of vaccinated individuals per CRS case averted.Conclusion and recommendationsWe were unable to conduct data synthesis of included studies due to discrepancies in outcome reporting. However, qualitative assessment of results of individual studies suggests that vaccination of infants should be combined with vaccination of older children to achieve rapid elimination of CRS. Better outcomes are obtained when rubella vaccination is introduced into public vaccination schedules at coverage figures of 80%, as recommended by WHO, or higher. Guidelines for reporting of outcomes in mathematical modelling studies and the conduct of systematic reviews of mathematical modelling studies are required.

Project description:BackgroundRubella-containing vaccines (RCV) are not yet part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) vaccination program; however RCV introduction is planned before 2020. Because documentation of DRC's historical burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) has been minimal, estimates of the burden of rubella virus infection and of CRS would help inform the country's strategy for RCV introduction.MethodsA rubella antibody seroprevalence assessment was conducted using serum collected during 2008-2009 from 1605 pregnant women aged 15-46years attending 7 antenatal care sites in 3 of DRC's provinces. Estimates of age- and site-specific rubella antibody seroprevalence, population, and fertility rates were used in catalytic models to estimate the incidence of CRS per 100,000 live births and the number of CRS cases born in 2013 in DRC.ResultsOverall 84% (95% CI 82, 86) of the women tested were estimated to be rubella antibody seropositive. The association between age and estimated antibody seroprevalence, adjusting for study site, was not significant (p=0.10). Differences in overall estimated seroprevalence by study site were observed indicating variation by geographical area (p⩽0.03 for all). Estimated seroprevalence was similar for women declaring residence in urban (84%) versus rural (83%) settings (p=0.67). In 2013 for DRC nationally, the estimated incidence of CRS was 69/100,000 live births (95% CI 0, 186), corresponding to 2886 infants (95% CI 342, 6395) born with CRS.ConclusionsIn the 3 provinces, rubella virus transmission is endemic, and most viral exposure and seroconversion occurs before age 15years. However, approximately 10-20% of the women were susceptible to rubella virus infection and thus at risk for having an infant with CRS. This analysis can guide plans for introduction of RCV in DRC. Per World Health Organization recommendations, introduction of RCV should be accompanied by a campaign targeting all children 9months to 14years of age as well as vaccination of women of child bearing age through routine services.

Project description:BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is of great global public health concern. In order to address the paucity of antibiotic consumption data and antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems in hospitals in humanitarian settings, we estimated antibiotic consumption in six hospitals with the aim of developing recommendations for improvements in antimicrobial stewardship programs.MethodsSix hospitals supported by Médecins sans Frontières were included in the study: Boost-Afghanistan, Kutupalong-Bangladesh, Baraka and Mweso-Democratic Republic of Congo, Kule-Ethiopia, and Bentiu-South Sudan. Data for 36,984 inpatients and antibiotic consumption data were collected from 2018 to 2020. Antibiotics were categorized per World Health Organization Access Watch Reserve classification. Total antibiotic consumption was measured by Defined Daily Doses (DDDs)/1000 bed-days.ResultsAverage antibiotic consumption in all hospitals was 2745 DDDs/1000 bed-days. Boost hospital had the highest antibiotic consumption (4157 DDDs/1000 bed-days) and Bentiu the lowest (1598 DDDs/1000 bed-days). In all hospitals, Access antibiotics were mostly used (69.7%), followed by Watch antibiotics (30.1%). The most consumed antibiotics were amoxicillin (23.5%), amoxicillin and clavulanic acid (14%), and metronidazole (13.2%). Across all projects, mean annual antibiotic consumption reduced by 22.3% during the study period, mainly driven by the reduction in Boost hospital in Afghanistan.ConclusionsThis was the first study to assess antibiotic consumption by DDD metric in hospitals in humanitarian settings. Antibiotic consumption in project hospitals was higher than those reported from non-humanitarian settings. Routine systematic antibiotic consumption monitoring systems should be implemented in hospitals, accompanied by prescribing audits and point-prevalence surveys, to inform about the volume and appropriateness of antibiotic use and to support antimicrobial stewardship efforts in humanitarian settings.

Project description:BackgroundAn increase of congenital anomalies in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been reported. Congenital malformations (CMs) are not uncommon among newborns and, if left untreated, can contribute to increased neonate morbidity and mortality.MethodsMedical records of all individuals admitted with a diagnosed CM to HEAL Africa Teaching Hospital (Goma, DRC) from 2002 to 2014 (n=1301) were reviewed. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics to summarize chart records, and inferential statistics to investigate significant barriers to earlier treatment.ResultsSince 2012, the number of patients treated each year for CMs has increased by over 200% compared to the average annual number of cases treated from 2002-2011. Though delayed presentation of patients to HEAL Hospital was very obvious, with an average age of 8.2 years. We find that patient age has been significantly decreasing (p=0.037) over time. The average distance separating patients from HEAL Hospital was 178 km, with approximately one third living 350 km or further from the treatment center. Distance is the most significant (p=3.33x10(-6)) barrier to earlier treatment. When controlling for an interaction between gender and the use of mercy funds, we also find that female patients are at a significant (p=1.04x10(-3)) disadvantage to undergo earlier corrective surgery. This disadvantage is further illustrated by our finding that 89% of women and girls, and over 81% of all patients, required mercy funds to cover the cost of surgery in 2014. Lastly, the mortality rate for surgery was low and averaged less than 1.0%.ConclusionDespite a formal end to the war in 2009, and an overall increase in individuals undergoing corrective surgery, distance, poverty, and gender are still massive barriers to CM care at HEAL Hospital, Goma, DRC. We find that patients have been successfully treated earlier by HEAL, although the average age of CM correction in 2014 (4.9 years) is still above average for Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, we advocate for further funding from the National Government and international health agencies to enable continued treatment of CMs in rural residents of the eastern DRC. Distance, the most significant barrier to care can be mitigated by the implementation of additional mobile clinics and the construction of regional surgery centers along with the associated hiring of surgeons trained in CM repair.

Dataset Information

Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study.

Publications

Evaluating the potential impact of rubella-containing vaccine introduction on congenital rubella syndrome in Afghanistan, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Pakistan: A mathematical modeling study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets