Construction and comparison of short-term prognosis prediction model based on machine learning in acute ischemic stroke
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SUBMITTER: Xing Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10792580 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Machine Learning (ML) has been proposed for tissue fate prediction after acute ischemic stroke (AIS), with the aim to help treatment decision and patient management. We compared three different ML models to the clinical method based on diffusion-perfusion thresholding for the voxel-based prediction of final infarct, using a large MRI dataset obtained in a cohort of AIS patients prior to recanalization treatment. Baseline MRI (MRI0), including diffusion-weighted sequence (DWI) and Tmax maps from perfusion-weighted sequence, and 24-hr follow-up MRI (MRI24h) were retrospectively collected in consecutive 394 patients AIS patients (median age = 70 years; final infarct volume = 28mL). Manually segmented DWI24h lesion was considered the final infarct. Gradient Boosting, Random Forests and U-Net were trained using DWI, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and Tmax maps on MRI0 as inputs to predict final infarct. Tissue outcome predictions were compared to final infarct using Dice score. Gradient Boosting had significantly better predictive performance (median [IQR] Dice Score as for median age, maybe you can replace the comma with an equal sign for consistency 0.53 [0.29-0.68]) than U-Net (0.48 [0.18-0.68]), Random Forests (0.51 [0.27-0.66]), and clinical thresholding method (0.45 [0.25-0.62]) (P < 0.001). In this benchmark of ML models for tissue outcome prediction in AIS, Gradient Boosting outperformed other ML models and clinical thresholding method and is thus promising for future decision-making.
| S-EPMC8756479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeMechanical thrombectomy greatly improves stroke outcomes. Nonetheless, some patients fall short of full recovery despite good reperfusion. The purpose of this study was to develop machine learning (ML) models for the pre-interventional prediction of functional outcome at 3 months of thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke (AIS), using clinical and auto-extractable radiological information consistently available upon first emergency evaluation.Materials and methodsA two-center retrospective cohort of 293 patients with AIS who underwent thrombectomy was analyzed. ML models were developed to predict dichotomized modified Rankin score at 90 days (mRS-90) using clinical and imaging features, both separately and combined. Conventional and experimental imaging biomarkers were quantified using automated image-processing software from non-contract computed tomography (CT) and computed tomography angiography (CTA). Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) was applied for model interpretability and predictor importance analysis of the optimal model.ResultsMerging clinical and imaging features returned the best results for mRS-90 prediction. The best performing classifier was Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 84% using selected features. The most important classifying features were age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), occlusion side, degree of brain atrophy [primarily represented by cortical cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume and lateral ventricle volume], early ischemic core [primarily represented by e-Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS)], and collateral circulation deficit volume on CTA.ConclusionMachine learning that is applied to quantifiable image features from CT and CTA alongside basic clinical characteristics constitutes a promising automated method in the pre-interventional prediction of stroke prognosis. Interpretable models allow for exploring which initial features contribute the most to post-thrombectomy outcome prediction overall and for each individual patient outcome.
| S-EPMC9160988 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Purpose: Stroke-related functional risk scores are used to predict patients' functional outcomes following a stroke event. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of machine-learning algorithms for predicting functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke patients after endovascular treatment. Methods: Data were from the Precise and Rapid Assessment of Collaterals with Multi-phase CT Angiography (PROVE-IT), an observational study of 614 ischemic stroke patients. Regression and machine learning models, including random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), C5.0 decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boost machine (ABM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, and logistic regression models were used to train and predict the 90-day functional impairment risk, which is measured by the modified Rankin scale (mRS) score > 2. The models were internally validated using split-sample cross-validation and externally validated in the INTERRSeCT cohort study. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and Brier score. Results: Of the 614 patients included in the training data, 249 (40.5%) had 90-day functional impairment (i.e., mRS > 2). The median and interquartile range (IQR) of age and baseline NIHSS scores were 77 years (IQR = 69-83) and 17 (IQR = 11-22), respectively. Both logistic regression and machine learning models had comparable predictive accuracy when validated internally (AUC range = [0.65-0.72]; MCC range = [0.29-0.42]) and externally (AUC range = [0.66-0.71]; MCC range = [0.34-0.42]). Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms and logistic regression had comparable predictive accuracy for predicting stroke-related functional impairment in stroke patients.
| S-EPMC7479334 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is one of the leading causes of a poor prognostic marker after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We compared the performances of the several machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict HT after AIS using only structured data. A total of 2028 patients with AIS, who were admitted within seven days of symptoms onset, were included in this analysis. HT was defined based on the criteria of the European Co-operative Acute Stroke Study-II trial. The whole dataset was randomly divided into a training and a test dataset with a 7:3 ratio. Binary logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms were used to assess the performance of predicting the HT occurrence after AIS. Five-fold cross validation and a grid search technique were used to optimize the hyperparameters of each ML model, which had its performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Among the included AIS patients, the mean age and number of male subjects were 69.6 years and 1183 (58.3%), respectively. HT was observed in 318 subjects (15.7%). There were no significant differences in corresponding variables between the training and test dataset. Among all the ML algorithms, the ANN algorithm showed the best performance in terms of predicting the occurrence of HT in our dataset (0.844). Feature scaling including standardization and normalization, and the resampling strategy showed no additional improvement of the ANN's performance. The ANN-based prediction of HT after AIS showed better performance than the conventional ML algorithms. Deep learning may be used to predict important outcomes for structured data-based prediction.
| S-EPMC8470833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence, prevalence, and mortality of ischemic stroke (IS) continue to rise, resulting in a serious global disease burden. The prediction models have a great value in the early prediction and diagnosis of IS.MethodsThe R software was used to screen the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of IS and control samples in the datasets GSE16561, GSE58294, and GSE37587 and analyze DEGs for enrichment analysis. The feature genes of IS were obtained by several machine learning algorithms, including the least absolute shrinkage and selector operation (LASSO) logistic regression, the support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE), and the Random Forest (RF). The IS diagnostic models were constructed based on transcriptomics by machine learning and artificial neural network (ANN).ResultsA total of 69 DEGs, mainly involved in immune and inflammatory responses, were identified. The pathways enriched in the IS group were complement and coagulation cascades, lysosome, PPAR signaling pathway, regulation of autophagy, and toll-like receptor signaling pathway. The feature genes selected by LASSO, SVM-RFE, and RF were 17, 10, and 12, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the LASSO model in the training dataset, GSE22255, and GSE195442 was 0.969, 0.890, and 1.000. The AUC of the SVM-RFE model was 0.957, 0.805, and 1.000, respectively. The AUC of the RF model was 0.947, 0.935, and 1.000, respectively. The models have good sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The AUC of the LASSO+ANN, SVM-RFE+ANN, and RF+ANN models was 1.000, 0.995, and 0.997, respectively, in the training dataset. However, the AUC of LASSO+ANN, SVM-RFE+ANN, and RF+ANN models was 0.688, 0.605, and 0.619, respectively, in the GSE22255 dataset. The AUC of the LASSO+ANN and RF+ANN models was 0.740 and 0.630, respectively, in the GSE195442 dataset. In the training dataset, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the LASSO+ANN model were 1.000, 1.000, and 1.000, respectively; of the SVM-RFE+ANN model were 0.946, 0.982, and 0.964, respectively; and of the RF+ANN model were 0.964, 1.000, and 0.982, respectively. In the test datasets, the sensitivity was very satisfactory; however, the specificity and accuracy were not good.ConclusionThe LASSO, SVM-RFE, and RF models have good prediction abilities. However, the ANN model is efficient at classifying positive samples and is unsuitable at classifying negative samples.
| S-EPMC9762505 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectives Post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) occurs in up to 50% of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Thus, the prediction of cognitive outcomes in AIS may be useful for treatment decisions. This PSCI cohort study aimed to determine the applicability of a machine learning approach for predicting PSCI after stroke. Methods This retrospective study used a prospective PSCI cohort of patients with AIS. Demographic features, clinical characteristics, and brain imaging variables previously known to be associated with PSCI were included in the analysis. The primary outcome was PSCI at 3–6 months, defined as an adjusted z-score of less than − 2.0 standard deviation in at least one of the four cognitive domains (memory, executive/frontal, visuospatial, and language), using the Korean version of the Vascular Cognitive Impairment Harmonization Standards-Neuropsychological Protocol (VCIHS-NP). We developed four machine learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boost, and artificial neural network) and compared their accuracies for outcome variables. Results A total of 951 patients (mean age 65.7 ± 11.9; male 61.5%) with AIS were included in this study. The area under the curve for the extreme gradient boost and the artificial neural network was the highest (0.7919 and 0.7365, respectively) among the four models for predicting PSCI according to the VCIHS-NP definition. The most important features for predicting PSCI include the presence of cortical infarcts, mesial temporal lobe atrophy, initial stroke severity, stroke history, and strategic lesion infarcts. Conclusion Our findings indicate that machine-learning algorithms, particularly the extreme gradient boost and the artificial neural network models, can best predict cognitive outcomes after ischemic stroke. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-023-01289-4.
| S-EPMC10468853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe long-term risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, estimated to be between 17% and 30%, cannot be reliably assessed at an individual level. Our goal was to study whether machine-learning can be trained to predict stroke recurrence and identify key clinical variables and assess whether performance metrics can be optimized.MethodsWe used patient-level data from electronic health records, six interpretable algorithms (Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree), four feature selection strategies, five prediction windows, and two sampling strategies to develop 288 models for up to 5-year stroke recurrence prediction. We further identified important clinical features and different optimization strategies.ResultsWe included 2091 ischemic stroke patients. Model area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was stable for prediction windows of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, with the highest score for the 1-year (0.79) and the lowest score for the 5-year prediction window (0.69). A total of 21 (7%) models reached an AUROC above 0.73 while 110 (38%) models reached an AUROC greater than 0.7. Among the 53 features analyzed, age, body mass index, and laboratory-based features (such as high-density lipoprotein, hemoglobin A1c, and creatinine) had the highest overall importance scores. The balance between specificity and sensitivity improved through sampling strategies.ConclusionAll of the selected six algorithms could be trained to predict the long-term stroke recurrence and laboratory-based variables were highly associated with stroke recurrence. The latter could be targeted for personalized interventions. Model performance metrics could be optimized, and models can be implemented in the same healthcare system as intelligent decision support for targeted intervention.
| S-EPMC8003970 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe purpose of the current study is to explore the value of a nomogram that integrates clinical factors and MRI white matter hyperintensities (WMH) radiomics features in predicting the prognosis at 90 days for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).MethodsA total of 202 inpatients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke from the Department of Neurology, Xuzhou Central Hospital between September 2023 and March 2024 were retrospectively enrolled. Inpatient clinical data and cranial MRI images were acquired. In this study, the sample was randomly divided into a training cohort comprising 141 cases and a validation cohort of 61 cases in a 7:3 ratio. WMH lesions on fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences were automatically segmented and manually adjusted using Matlab and ITK-SNAP software. The segmentation led to the identification of total white matter hyperintensity (TWMH), periventricular white matter hyperintensity (PWMH), and deep white matter hyperintensity (DWMH). Subsequently, radiomics features were meticulously extracted from these three distinct regions of interest (ROIs). Radiomic models for the three ROIs were developed using six machine learning algorithms. The clinical model was built by identifying clinical risk factors through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A combined model was subsequently developed incorporating the best radiomics model with significant clinical factors. To illustrate these risk factors, a graphical representation known as a nomogram was devised.ResultsAge, previous stroke history, coronary artery disease, admission blood glucose levels, homocysteine levels, and infarct volume were identified as independent clinical predictors of AIS prognosis. A total of 16, 21, and 22 radiomics features were selected from TWMH, PWMH, and DWMH, respectively. The TWMH radiomics model using the SVM classifier exhibited the best predictive performance for AIS prognosis, achieving a sensitivity of 90.0%, a specificity of 81.3%, an accuracy of 85.3%, and an AUC of 0.916 in the validation set. The combined model outperformed both the clinical and radiomics models, exhibiting exceptional predictive capabilities with a validation cohort sensitivity of 89.3%, specificity of 84.8%, accuracy of 86.9%, and AUC of 0.939.ConclusionThe FLAIR sequence-based WMH radiomics approach demonstrates effective prediction of the 90-day functional prognosis in patients with AIS. The integration of TWMH radiomics and clinical factors in a combined model exhibits superior performance. This innovative model shows potential in aiding clinicians to enhance their assessment of patient prognosis and tailor personalized treatment strategies.Clinical trial numberNot applicable.
| S-EPMC11924691 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC11576476 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurate prediction of clinical outcomes in individual patients following acute stroke is vital for healthcare providers to optimize treatment strategies and plan further patient care. Here, we use advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to systematically compare the prediction of functional recovery, cognitive function, depression, and mortality of first-ever ischemic stroke patients and to identify the leading prognostic factors.MethodsWe predicted clinical outcomes for 307 patients (151 females, 156 males; 68 ± 14 years) from the PROSpective Cohort with Incident Stroke Berlin study using 43 baseline features. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel Index (BI), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-M), Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and survival. The ML models included a Support Vector Machine with a linear kernel and a radial basis function kernel as well as a Gradient Boosting Classifier based on repeated 5-fold nested cross-validation. The leading prognostic features were identified using Shapley additive explanations.ResultsThe ML models achieved significant prediction performance for mRS at patient discharge and after 1 year, BI and MMSE at patient discharge, TICS-M after 1 and 3 years and CES-D after 1 year. Additionally, we showed that National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) was the top predictor for most functional recovery outcomes as well as education for cognitive function and depression.ConclusionOur machine learning analysis successfully demonstrated the ability to predict clinical outcomes after first-ever ischemic stroke and identified the leading prognostic factors that contribute to this prediction.
| S-EPMC9990416 | biostudies-literature