Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

ABSTRACT: During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum

SUBMITTER: de Jong SPJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10796432 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature