Prediction of early-onset colorectal cancer mortality rates in the United States using machine learning.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The current study, focusing on a significant US (United States) colorectal cancer (CRC) burden, employs machine learning for predicting future rates among young population.

Methods

CDC WONDER data from 1999 to 2022 was analyzed for CRC-related mortality in patients younger than 56 years. Temporal trends in age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were assessed via Joinpoint software. Future mortality rates were forecasted using an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.

Results

From 1999 to 2022, we observed 150,908 deaths with CRC listed as the underlying cause, predominantly in males, with an upward trend in AAMR. The ARIMA model projects an increase in CRC mortality by 2035, estimating an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.3%

SUBMITTER: Ali H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10807634 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature