Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean.

ABSTRACT: The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments. Results indicate that there are two fundamental and independent sources of forecast errors in the EEIO. The first one is of atmospheric nature and is largely related with too strong and stable easterly atmospheric circulation present in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This induces an easterly bias which leaves the coupled model predominantly in a state with a shallow thermoc

SUBMITTER: Mayer M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10827862 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature