Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen.

ABSTRACT: The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated

SUBMITTER: Chen Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10831107 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature