Dataset Information

Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate.

ABSTRACT: Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas with high Black populations and leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities and impacting those less able to adapt. Reducing emissions can offer significant annual health benefits ($5,400 per person) by mitigating the effect of climate change on air pollution and its associated risks of early death. Relying on people to adapt, instead, would require them to stay inside, with doors and windows closed, for an extra 142 d per year, at an average cost of $11,000 per person. It appears likelier, however, that people will achieve minimal protection without policy to increase adaptation rates. Boosting adaptation can offer net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New adaptation policies could, for example: reduce adaptation costs; reduce infiltration and improve indoor air quality; increase awareness of alerts and adaptation; and provide measures for those working or living outdoors. Reducing emissions, conversely, lowers everyone's need to adapt, and protects those who cannot adapt. Equitably protecting human health from air pollution under climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation.

SUBMITTER: Sparks MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10835109 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate.

Sparks Matt S MS Farahbakhsh Isaiah I Anand Madhur M Bauch Chris T CT Conlon Kathryn C KC East James D JD Li Tianyuan T Lickley Megan M Garcia-Menendez Fernando F Monier Erwan E Saari Rebecca K RK

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20240116 5

Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They ...[more]

PMID: 38227646

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Project description:BackgroundWe describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios.MethodsMortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens.ResultsDuring the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation.ConclusionElevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Project description:Alaskan wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, but very little is known regarding exposure to wildfire smoke, a risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. We estimated long-term, present-day and future exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Alaska for the general population and subpopulations to assess vulnerability using observed data for the present day (1997-2010), modelled estimates for the present day (1997-2001), and modelled estimates for the future (2047-2051). First, we assessed wildfire-PM2.5 exposure by estimating monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels across 1997-2010 for 158 Alaskan census tracts, using atmospheric transport modelling based on observed area-burned data. Second, we estimated changes in future (2047-2051) wildfire-PM2.5 exposure compared to the present-day (1997-2001) by estimating the monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels for 29 boroughs/census areas (county-equivalent areas), under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario from an ensemble of 13 climate models. Subpopulation risks for present and future exposure levels were estimated by summing area-weighted exposure levels utilizing the 2000 Census and State of Alaska's population projections. We assessed vulnerability by several subpopulation characteristics (e.g. race/ethnicity, urbanicity). Wildfire-PM2.5 exposure levels during 1997-2010 were highest in interior Alaska during July. Among subpopulations, average summer (June-August) exposure levels for urban dwellers and African-American/Blacks were highest at 9.1 μg m-3 and 10 μg m-3, respectively. Estimated wildfire-PM2.5 varied by Native American tribe, ranging from average summer levels of 2.4 μg m-3 to 13 μg m-3 for Tlingit-Haida and Alaskan Athabascan tribes, respectively. Estimates indicate that by the mid-21st century, under climate change, almost all of Alaska could be exposed to increases of 100% or more in levels of wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels. Exposure to wildfire-PM2.5 likely presents a substantial public health burden in the present day for Alaska communities, with different impacts by subpopulation. Under climate change, wildfire smoke could pose an even greater public health risks for most Alaskans.

Dataset Information

Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate.

Publications

Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate.

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