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Excess pancreatic cancer risk due to smoking and modifying effect of quitting smoking: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.


ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include racial/ethnic disparities and smoking. However, risk trajectories by smoking history and race/ethnicity are unknown. We examined the association of smoking with pancreatic cancer by race/ethnicity to generate age-specific incidence estimates by smoking history.

Methods

We modeled pancreatic cancer incidence by race/ethnicity, age, pack-years, and years-quit using an excess relative risk model for 182,011 Multiethnic Cohort participants. We tested heterogeneity of smoking variables and pancreatic cancer by race/ethnicity and predicted incidence by smoking history.

Results

We identified 1,831 incident pancreatic cancer cases over an average 19.3 years of follow-up. Associations of pack-years (p interaction by race/ethnicity = 0.41) and years-quit (p interaction = 0.83) with pancreatic cancer did not differ by race/ethnicity. Fifty pack-years smoked was associated with 91% increased risk (95% CI 54%, 127%) relative to never smokers in the combined sample. Every year quit corresponded to 9% decreased excess risk (95% CI 2%, 15%) from pack-years smoked. Differences in baseline pancreatic cancer risk across racial/ethnic groups (p < 0.001) translated to large differences in risk for smokers at older ages across racial/ethnic groups (65-122 cases per 100,000 at age 70).

Conclusion

Smoking pack-years were positively associated with elevated pancreatic cancer risk. Predicted risk trajectories showed a high impact of smoking cessation at < 65 years. Although we did not identify significant heterogeneity in the association of pack-years or years quit with pancreatic cancer risk, current smoker risk varied greatly by race/ethnicity in later life due to large differences in baseline risk.

SUBMITTER: Bogumil D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10838846 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Excess pancreatic cancer risk due to smoking and modifying effect of quitting smoking: The Multiethnic Cohort Study.

Bogumil David D   Stram Daniel D   Preston Dale L DL   Pandol Stephen J SJ   Wu Anna H AH   McKean-Cowdin Roberta R   Conti David V DV   Setiawan Veronica Wendy VW  

Cancer causes & control : CCC 20231104 3


<h4>Purpose</h4>Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include racial/ethnic disparities and smoking. However, risk trajectories by smoking history and race/ethnicity are unknown. We examined the association of smoking with pancreatic cancer by race/ethnicity to generate age-specific incidence estimates by smoking history.<h4>Methods</h4>We modeled pancreatic cancer incidence by race/ethnicity, age, pack-years, and years-quit using an excess relative risk model for 182,011 Multiethnic Cohort partici  ...[more]

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