Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network.

ABSTRACT: Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from the outbreak country, establishing a linear relationship to the arrival time of the unmitigated spread of a disease. However, in the early stages of an outbreak, what concerns decision-makers in countries is understanding the relative risk of active cases arriving in their country-essentially, the likelihood that an active case boarding an airplane at the outbreak location will reach them. While there are data-fitted models available to estimate these risks, accurate mechanistic, parameter-free models are still lacking. Therefore, we introduce the 'import

SUBMITTER: Klamser PP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10843136 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature