Unraveling sub-seasonal precipitation variability in the Middle East via Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

ABSTRACT: This study examines sub-seasonal precipitation anomalies, challenging to predict yet vital for society and the environment. Focusing on October, we investigate correlations between the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), West Tropical Indian Ocean Index (WTIO), and Middle Eastern precipitation. We find robust correlations (~ 0.7), up to a two-month lag, demonstrating strong links between these climate indices and rainfall patterns, potentially suggesting sub-seasonal precipitation predictability. Over the past four decades, DMI and WTIO have shown a significant upward trend of ~ 0.4 °C, intensifying their impact on precipitation dynamics. This trend signifies evolving Indian Ocean climate patterns with potential regional consequences and is projected to continue in the twenty-first centu

SUBMITTER: Hochman A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10844372 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature